Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31494;5;u372

https://backpack.tf/item/15226593795

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/29/25

$70.99 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = 36.6

Rounding to 37

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/item/15257215258

Bulk for a Searing Stove Jungle Wreath

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168800610#!/compare/1747180800/1747267200 (ID: 15736672898)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199720729271#!/compare/1747094400/1747267200

Use there

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/15257215258

Keys immediately used to buy in bulk, unfortunately untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155066949#!/compare/1747267200/1747353600

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/15257215258

21 keys 29 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155066949#!/compare/1747440000/1747526400 (ID: 15746602471)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199133022139#!/compare/1747440000/1747526400 (untraceable)

Rounding to 21

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/15257215258

26 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199133022139#!/compare/1747526400/1747785600 (untraceable)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198319114954#!/compare/1747440000/1747612800

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/15232789896

34 keys 0.33 ref for the Dapper Noel + Ghosts of Smissmas Time Crimbo Cap (in date at 13.5)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163581005#!/compare/1742688000/1742860800 (ID: 15575464738)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1742688000/1742688000/nearest

34.01 - 13.5 = 20.51

Rounding to 21

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/15232789896

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1743120000/1743206400

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/15232789896

Dapper Noel + 6 keys + ~1 key in ref + ~1 key in sweets for a Galactic Connection Taunt: Killer Joke

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087806226#!/compare/1744502400/1744588800 (ID: 15638775639)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1744588800/1744588800/nearest

No usable mini, should be used to price there

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/15232789896

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1744588800/1744675200

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/15232789896

25 keys 18.44 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037931426#!/compare/1745280000/1745452800 (ID: 15668689005)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1745280000/1745280000/nearest

Rounding to 25

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/15232789896

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1747353600/1747440000

Current sellers:

$70.99 on mp.tf (3x)

$59.66 on mannco.store (2x)

$69.00 on SCM

$79.43 on SCM

$98.84 on SCM

$98.00 on SCM

$251.62 on SCM

36.52 keys on bp.tf

37.24 keys on bp.tf

42 keys on bp.tf

70 keys on bp.tf

100 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 37, 21, 26, 21, 25

37 key sale seems like an outlier along with a cheaper unsold at over a month

Final price: 21 - 26