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Sale #1
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/219;5;u16
History not found.
Marketplace.tf sale on 5/09/25
$89.90 / $1.93 (median value at the time) = 46.6
Rounding to 47
Sale #2
https://backpack.tf/item/361037497
39 keys 14.44 ref
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045715962#!/compare/1744329600/1744675200 (ID: 15642730147)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111292616#!/compare/1744675200/1744761600
Rounding to 39
This was a quicksell to buy orders, which have since risen
Sale #3
https://backpack.tf/item/345516701
38 keys maybe? Histories don't really track
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036303791#!/compare/1742256000/1742342400
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198189883628#!/compare/1740614400/1742428800
Sale #4
https://backpack.tf/item/345516701
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101708706#!/compare/1738627200/1747180800
Sale #5
https://backpack.tf/item/345516701
Dumped to STN, untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101708706#!/compare/1738627200/1747180800
STN currently pays 37
Current sellers:
$89.90 on mp.tf
41 keys 33.33 ref on STN
Sales: 47, 39, 38, 37
Well that's three sales that are beneath buyers. Looks like a very inflated hat to me. The 39 key sale is supported by gladiator.tf stats, so I will use that to price this hat. The others, I cannot say for sure what they sold for given histories don't cleanly match. Ignoring the 47 key sale since its an outlier and STN has been unsold for significantly cheaper for awhile.
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Vivid%20Plasma%20Milkman&at=2025-06-16T22:10:17.514Z
Final price: 39
Not nice
Yeah, this isn't going to work. The fact that every sale is below buyers, and the only other sale is very firmly above sellers, is a very good hint that this should simply be left outdated.
I thought if there were 3+ sales below buyers we could call it a common selling point and use it? Wouldn’t that suggest the buyers are currently inflated and that it accurately reflects the hats value
This is true according to the rules
Exceptions when buy orders don't necessarily counter lower sales
Numbers Matter - if there is only 1 lonely buy order and 3 sales lower than that it probably doesn't counter. Also generic buy orders (any effect) are usually buying more than 1 copy of a hat.
Common Trading Point - if there is a huge number of sales at or around buyer prices then it might be included in the price range. Sellers being close to buy orders is also an indication for that.
Market Shifts - timing of buy orders and sales matter: If a sale took place before a buy order was created the seller obviously couldn't just "sell it to the buy order instead".
Counter Buy Orders - Buy orders created after a suggestion was made with the sole purpose of countering the suggestion will be structurally ignored.
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/6033-rules-for-unusual-price-suggestions/
The logic here ends up falling apart since all 3 sales below buyers are for different prices, and are all bot dumps.
Furthermore, I'm realizing that two of the sales below buyers aren't even valid:
-The 38 sale does not match IDs OR histories with the buyer. We have no reasonable way of knowing if it truly did sell for 38 Keys, or if it was sold for something else that then was sold for the 38 Keys. We cannot accept sales with incomplete information in good faith.
- Likewise, the 37 Key sale you (Big Dan) yourself admitted is untraceable, you are just assuming that it sold for 37 Keys since that's STN's current buying price. That logic is inherently flawed since STN constantly change their prices throughout the remainder of the month. It's possible it could've sold for more than 37 Keys, or less. Without a screenshot of the time of the sale or valid key history links to compare to, we can't just assume that it sold for 37 Keys.
I was going to be more lenient for this suggestion, but upon closer inspection I'm going to have to close this since not only is the logic for the range flawed, but you tried to use 2 sales that, as far as we are aware, did not happen. Having said that, since there's not actually three sales for lower than 47, and just one, this actually can be priced at 39-47. Please resuggest at that.