Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31459;5;u349

https://backpack.tf/item/14789353849 (maybe)

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/07/25

$50.00 / $1.95 (median value at the time) = 25.6

Rounding to 26

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31459;5;u349

https://backpack.tf/item/14701504792 (maybe)

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/08/25

$50.00 / $1.93 (median value at the time) = 25.9

Rounding to 26

Sale #3

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31459;5;u349

https://backpack.tf/item/14908666565 (maybe)

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/31/25

$50.00 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = 25.8

Rounding to 26

Sale #4

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31459;5;u349

History not found

Marketplace.tf sale on 6/04/25

$50.00 / $1.97 (median value at the time) = 25.4

Rounding to 25

Sale #5

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31459;5;u349

History not found

Marketplace.tf sale on 6/11/25

$50.00 / $1.95 (median value at the time) = 25.6

Rounding to 26

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/14833247607

19 keys 37 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1744675200/1744761600 (Key ID: 15645344357)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092654753#!/compare/1744675200/1744761600

Rounding to 20

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/14802727200

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198206573943#!/compare/1743552000/1745193600

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/14719812984

Sold with 7 keys + earbuds for a Chromatica California Cap (histories align...)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079528766#!/compare/1744934400/1745452800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199112522018#!/compare/1744934400/1745020800

Probably missing info here. Would be super high anyways

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/14713167263

Sold for an Aurora Skies Crimbo Cap + 2 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1746576000/1746662400 (Near ID: 15714450605)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448915279#!/compare/1746576000/1746662400

Aurora Skies Crimbo Cap mini

Mini #1

https://backpack.tf/item/15717593169

17 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199387315539#!/compare/1748390400/1748476800 (ID: 15783833195)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859755728#!/compare/1748390400/1748476800

Mini #2

https://backpack.tf/item/15717593169

19 keys (compare links fuck up but we see 19 keys go to the buyers inventory)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158568880#!/compare/1746835200/1746921600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199119559575#!/compare/1747612800/1747785600 (15758143926)

Mini #3

https://backpack.tf/item/15642996072

12 keys 6 ref (to a bot buy order)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198347900206#!/compare/1746662400/1746748800 (ID: 15717062284)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1746748800/1746835200

Mini #4

17 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157969902#!/compare/1745280000/1745539200 (ID: 15673696902)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131633162#!/compare/1745539200/1745625600

That should be sufficient effort for a mini, otherwise I'd have to go through like 30-50 more sales potentially. Using 17, 19, 19 and taking the middle at 18.

Back to Sale #9

18 + 2 = 20

20

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/14685832834

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198955585735#!/compare/1743292800/1743552000

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/14685832834

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104457222#!/compare/1744243200/1744329600

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/15632713506

15 keys 12.22 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198391635210#!/compare/1743552000/1744416000 (ID: 15632713506)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199100906514#!/compare/1737417600/1743552000

Rounding to 15

Gladiator.tf sales:

19 keys @ 4/11/25

18 keys 20 ref @ 4/03/25

18 keys 25.66 ref @ 5/15/25

15 keys 12.22 ref @ 4/12/25 (Sale #12)

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Bewitching%20Bugs%20Commonwealth%20Commando&at=2025-06-23T20:22:44.275Z

Current sellers:

$50.00 on mp.tf

$58.80 on mp.tf

$67.29 on mannco.store

$70.00 on SCM

23 keys on bp.tf

25 keys on bp.tf

28 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 26, 26, 26, 25, 26, 20, 20, 15, 19, 18, 18

Buyers at 17.9 should counter the 15 key sale. Feels a little bit wrong to ignore all the 26 key sales just because of a week old listing at 23, so as a compromise I will include just the 25 key sale in the high end since the 26 key sales are countered by more than one seller.

Final price: 18 - 25