Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31497;5;u19

History not found

Marketplace.tf sale on 6/05/25

$39.99 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = 20.6

Rounding to 21

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/item/15690854574

Sold to scrap

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198996201152#!/compare/1747353600/1748736000

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/15690854574

Sold for an Orbiting Fire Climbing Commander + 7 keys 0.22 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1747699200/1747785600 (ID: 15756648504)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197998852553#!/compare/1747180800/1748304000

No usable mini for the Climbing Commander, but the buyers and sellers are really close (13 and 15 respectively) so I will just take buy orders at 13

13 + 7 = 20

20

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/15602992866

14 keys (checked each history)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1745193600/1745280000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199841320966#!/compare/1745107200/1745193600

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/15602992866

Untraceable / gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199841320966#!/compare/1745971200/1746057600

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/15602992866

9 keys 29 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252348120#!/compare/1747872000/1747958400 (ID: 15762944540)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1747785600/1747872000

Rounding to 9.5

This hat was won from a series of gambles, not really respecting this sale compared to others.

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/15602992866

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121850880#!/compare/1750032000/1750118400

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/15354463744

17 keys 67.22 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138572932#!/compare/1743465600/1743552000 (ID: 15599380981)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199236512884#!/compare/1743379200/1743552000

Rounding to 18

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/15342614920

19 keys 8 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1749340800/1749427200 (ID: 15820444585)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023226933#!/compare/1749427200/1749600000

Rounding to 19

Current sellers:

None

Sales: 21, 20, 14, 9.5, 18, 19

9.5 is below current buyers and is disproportionately low anyways. There are also enough higher end sales to call 14 a low outlier. To balance it out, I will ignore the 21 key marketplace.tf sale, as it would normally be lower after tax anyways.

Final price: 18 - 20