Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31366;5;u283

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/15/25

$34.99 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = ~18.0

Rounding to 18

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/item/15761868431

Keys used fast

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145602234#!/compare/1748736000/1750377600

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/15761868431

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199197624825#!/compare/1751760000/1751846400

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/15568078275

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198380634252#!/compare/1748476800/1748563200

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/15521505637

dumped

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054159742#!/compare/1745193600/1745280000

Sale #6 (unusable)

https://backpack.tf/item/15521505637

18 keys, but histories don't align

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060189392#!/compare/1749427200/1749513600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198854496201#!/compare/1749513600/1749427200

Sale #7 (unusable)

https://backpack.tf/item/15521505637

15 keys 50.88 ref

Seller: Not found

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199663649981#!/compare/1750377600/1750464000

Rounding to 16

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/13598045194

17 keys (each key's history matches)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1746144000/1746230400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198327825482#!/compare/1746144000/1746230400

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/13251057659

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049643124#!/compare/1526515200/1744934400

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/13251057659

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110668453#!/compare/1735776000/1747267200

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/13251057659

1:1 for a Contagious Eruption Throttlehead

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110668453#!/compare/1747267200/1751328000 (ID: 15878713374)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104494761#!/compare/1750982400/1751068800

No usable mini, use there

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/13877683389

SCM sale on 4/30/25

https://imgur.com/a/WovWuF6

proof: https://imgur.com/a/4jBs4uo

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049643124#!/compare/1526515200/1744934400

$26.24 = 11.56

Rounding to 12

Sale #13 (unusable)

SCM sale on 4/15/25

https://imgur.com/a/fIrfNFT

$44.96 = 20.15

Rounding to 20

Gladiator.tf sales

19 keys 25 ref @ 7/06/25 (rounding to 19)

15 keys 49.77 ref @ 6/20/25 (rounding to 16)

15 keys 49.55 ref @ 5/27/25 (rounding to 16)

15 keys 48 ref @ 5/07/25 (rounding to 16)

19 keys 49.66 ref @ 4/11/25 (rounding to 20)

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Jellyfish%20Hunter%20Brimmed%20Bootlegger&at=2025-07-08T19:15:30.168Z

Current sellers:

$29.99 on mp.tf

$39.99 on mp.tf

$34.99 on mannco.store

17.52 keys on bp.tf (2x)

21 keys on bp.tf

22 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 18, 18 (unusable), 16 (unusable), 17, 12, 20 (unusable), 19, 16, 16, 16, 20

12 is well below current buyers. Two sellers at 17.52 keys, with one being 3+ weeks old, indicates that all the sales at 19 and above are high outliers. I am going to ignore the marketplace.tf seller which is below buy orders currently.

Final price: 16 - 18