Im going to exclude the last 2 SCM sales since they were quicksells lower that what bots buy them for unless told otherwise.
I don't think we need to include the low SCM sales, but they do suggest that 158 is pretty high. The fact that the biggest data point is nearly three times lower than 158 is pretty telling.
Some new sales for this war paint
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/17415;11;w1;pk415
One sold on Jul 9th for 320$ on MP
Keys that day were 2.02
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
320/2.02 = 158.4
3 sold recently on the SCM
https://steamcommunity.com/market/pricehistory/?country=US¤cy=1&appid=440&market_hash_name=Strange%20Business%20Class%20War%20Paint%20(Factory%20New)
https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key
May 03 for 230$
Keys were 2.25$
230/2.25 = 102.2
May 31 for 144.09
Keys were 2.31
144.09/2.31 = 62.4
June 08 for 143. 95
Keys were 2.30
143.95/2.30 = 62.4
Im going to exclude the last 2 SCM sales since they were quicksells lower that what bots buy them for unless told otherwise.
I don't think we need to include the low SCM sales, but they do suggest that 158 is pretty high. The fact that the biggest data point is nearly three times lower than 158 is pretty telling.
102 flat will be better here.