Can't be a event sugg because its a b/o drop :(

Sale #1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073438708#!/compare/1752969600/1753056000 ~ 28 keys + 1 scrap match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1752969600/1753056000

Below buyers, on stn for 46 atm https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual%20Circling%20Heart%20Fed-Fightin'%20Fedora

Sale #2:

https://backpack.tf/item/10478158524

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1747094400/1747180800 ~ no matches

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199510759340#!/compare/1741046400/1747699200 ~ doesn't register

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Circling%20Heart%20Fed-Fightin%27%20Fedora&at=2025-07-25T04:46:46.027Z ~according to this, 33 keys which is below current buyers

Sale #3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199510759340#!/compare/1748822400/1748908800 ~ either gambling or bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106511423#!/compare/1748736000/1748908800

Sale #4:

https://backpack.tf/item/6513709086 ~ so much gamba

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198858282680#!/compare/1749772800/1749945600 ~ 4 keys match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1749772800/1749859200

Buyouts (B/Os)

B/Os alone can only be used to drop the value on a hat (you cannot raise based on a b/o.) if all three of these criteria are met:

There are no usable sales.

You must drop the mean value of the hat by at least 15%. (i.e. You shouldn't be dropping a hat from 31 to 30 keys based on a b/o. You SHOULD be dropping the value on a hat from 100 to 50 if 50 can't sell in a month).

The trade must have a reasonable time to mature (and must be reasonably bumped). What is reasonable varies from hat to hat. A good rule of thumb is to go by roughly 25 keys per week. So a trade for a hat <25 keys in value must be up for at least a week. A trade for a hat <50 keys must be up for at least 2 weeks. A trade for a hat <75 keys must be up for at least 3 weeks. For all other hats, the trade must be up for at least a month in order to price them based off the b/o.

1) No usable sales

2) This would be a 25% drop (52.5 to 40)

3) 14 days and 26 days at 40 keys https://i.imgur.com/O3oJURd.png which is a 12.5 key drop so this fits this criteria.