Event is over, back to solo suggesting

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/9316221955

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198594131#!/compare/1747267200/1753315200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1747180800/1747267200

Bulk dump to QSStore

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1749427200/1749513600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127403038#!/compare/1748476800/1749427200

4 keys match

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127403038#!/compare/1750118400/1750291200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1750204800/1750291200

Dumped to a bot as bulk for the Sparkling Fireworks Hawaiian Hunter

Sale 4: Mannco.Store, excluding

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421717954#!/compare/1751846400/1751932800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421717954#!/compare/1751846400/1751932800

10 keys and 39 ref, rounds to 11 keys

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/11286657445

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047848986#!/compare/1747699200/1747785600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108309959#!/compare/1747699200/1747785600

Bot dump, 3 ref match

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108309959#!/compare/1747785600/1747872000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1747699200/1747872000

Bulk/Bot to owner

Sale 8: Listed on MPTF

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/15431150031

Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1750636800/1750723200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059421060#!/compare/1750550400/1750723200

8 keys

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/14448259907

Sale 10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1749513600/1749600000https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985789100#!/compare/1748822400/1749600000

10 keys + 1 ref, rounds to 10 keys

Sale 11: listed on MPTF

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/14084951676

Sale 12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1747958400/1748044800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199055461535#!/compare/1747872000/1748044800

Sold alongside Vintage Pro KS Direct Hit and 16 ref for Vivid Plasma Head Hedge, Strange Pro KS Cow Mangler 5000 and Wagga Wagga Wear

Should fall in-range with the rest, if it was higher it won't be valid anyway since it was dumped afterwards

Sale 13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199055461535#!/compare/1748044800/1748822400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059632349#!/compare/1748736000/1748822400

Dumped back to QSStore, no match

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/10459431976

Sale 14:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31146;5;u160

Sold for $23.99 on 9 May 2025

Keys were $1.93 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

23.99/1.93=12.43 ~12 keys

Sale 15:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198389204821#!/compare/1746921600/1749513600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053720151#!/compare/1746835200/1747094400

Untrace

Sale 16:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053720151#!/compare/1747094400/1747180800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199017959799#!/compare/1747180800/1747267200

Untrace/gambling

Sale 17:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199017959799#!/compare/1747008000/1747180800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199284954#!/compare/1747094400/1747180800

Untrace/gambling

Sale 18:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199284954#!/compare/1747094400/1747180800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193412191#!/compare/1747008000/1747180800

Dumped to a bot, 9.22 ref match

Item 7: https://backpack.tf/item/12141845871

Sale 19:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385173703#!/compare/1747612800/1747958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198889716122#!/compare/1746748800/1747958400

Sold alongside Hana Iron Bomber (Minimal Wear), The Ebenezer and Festive Sandvich for the Horsemann's Hack Sky High Fly Guy, better used on the Sky High Fly Guy

Sale 20:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198889716122#!/compare/1747958400/1748649600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1747872000/1747958400

Dumped to QSStore alongside the Iron Bomber and Sandvich for 11 keys and around a key of ref

Sale 21:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1748995200/1749081600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199759658664#!/compare/1746576000/1749686400

Untrace

Sale 22:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199759658664#!/compare/1749686400/1750204800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1749686400/1749772800

Bot dump, 1 scrap matches

Sale 23:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1751068800/1751155200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199609788951#!/compare/1751155200/1751241600

10 keys

Gladiator.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Gravelly%20Ghoul%20Calamitous%20Cauldron&at=2025-07-30T12:21:51.806Z

10 keys 26 ref @ 21/05/2025, 14:06 (~10 keys)

10 keys 49.22 ref @ 14/05/2025, 04:31 (~11 keys)

Neither of these are traceable but they support the traceable sales at 10 and 11

Sales:

8, 10, 10, 10 (untrace), 11, 11 (untrace), 12

Sellers:

BPTF - https://imgur.com/6yXENV2 10.49 keys (20 days), 10.8 keys (1 month), 12.49 keys, 13.49 keys

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31146;5;u160 $25.99 (~13 keys)

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual%20Gravelly%20Ghoul%20Calamitous%20Cauldron None

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Calamitous%20Cauldron?filter=Gravelly+Ghoul https://imgur.com/rGrFj2v $39.99 (~19 keys)

12 looks like an outlier given the unsuccessful seller at 10.8 keys for a month. Despite the seller at 10.49, I think 11 should still be included given 2 higher sales support it. 10.8 rounds to 11 so it shouldn't be a problem. Buyers are at ~9 keys so 8 looks low.

Going with 10-11 keys