Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/11064821274

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1753488000/1753574400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025650112#!/compare/1753574400/1753660800

12 keys

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/9545554262

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198351477305#!/compare/1743033600/1746576000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055694560#!/compare/1746230400/1746576000

Untrace

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055694560#!/compare/1750723200/1750809600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1750636800/1750723200

Dumped to Scrapyard for ~10 keys

Marketplace.tf: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30918;5;u3094

Sale 4:

Sold for $35 on May 19 2025

Keys were $1.95

35/1.95=17.95 ~18 keys

Sales:

10, 12, 18

Sellers:

BPTF - https://imgur.com/wB6WdjK 12.03 (3 days), 17 keys (1 year)

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30918;5;u3094 $35 (~17 keys)

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual%20Aurelian%20Seal%20Taunt:%20Surgeon's%20Squeezebox None

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Surgeon%27s%20Squeezebox?filter=Aurelian+Seal https://imgur.com/vqjalp4 None

Given the seller at 17 for a year, 18 is definitely an outlier. Also excluding 10 since it was a bot dump.

Going with 12 keys flat