Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/12142494793

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123389475#!/compare/1748390400/1748563200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1748390400/1748476800

4 keys 5.44 ref (~4.1 keys)

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/6255381508

Sale 2: Mannco.Store

Marketplace.tf: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30844;5;u3088

Items 3 and 4: https://backpack.tf/item/11147205534 https://backpack.tf/item/8350377542

Sale 3:

Sold for $8.99 on June 26 2025

Keys were $1.99 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

8.99/1.99=4.51 ~4.5 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for $8.99 on July 12 2025

Keys were $2.02 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

8.99/2.02=4.45 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for $7.99 on July 20 2025

Keys were $2.01 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

7.99/2.01=3.97 ~3.95 keys

Sales:

3.95, 4.1, 4.45, 4.5

Sellers:

BPTF - https://imgur.com/WETHA3m 5.29 keys (24 days), 6 keys (1 month)

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30844;5;u3088 $8.99 (~4.75 keys currently)

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual%20Marigold%20Ritual%20Taunt:%20The%20Soviet%20Strongarm None

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20The%20Soviet%20Strongarm?filter=Marigold+Ritual+ https://imgur.com/7A2owmr 10.21€ (~4.8 keys)

Even though 4.1 was a buy order dump, nothing actually counters the sales at 3.95 and 4.1 currently given buyers are at 3 keys and under, so going with a full range of 3.95-4.5 keys