Item 1:

https://backpack.tf/item/11344898071

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044734871#!/compare/1750723200/1750896000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093501381#!/compare/1750550400/1751414400 - Doesn't show up on buyers side

Untrace

Item 2:

https://backpack.tf/item/8626286030

MPTF sale, will include at the bottom

Item 3:

https://backpack.tf/item/8219909283

Mannco

Item 4:

https://backpack.tf/item/8165424801

Mannco

Item 5:

https://backpack.tf/item/8158297434

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1751241600/1751328000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197988763789#!/compare/1751328000/1751328000 - Buyers inventory isn't loading

Untrace, no keys on sellers side match either

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1750377600/1750464000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1750464000/1750550400

Untrace, sold between a STN bot and a quicksell bot.

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257831821#!/compare/1748304000/1748390400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059632349#!/compare/1748217600/1748304000

Sold with a couple of items for Starstorm Insomnia Wide-Brimmed Bandito + 1 key and some ref. Considering this was bought from a QS bot, there would have been overpay involved. Better used for Starstorm anyway

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257831821#!/compare/1746489600/1747785600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1747699200/1747785600

Untrace. Bought with a Silver Cyclone Taunt: The Pooped Deck from a QS bot. No trace on keys

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154604316#!/compare/1746748800/1747612800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1747094400/1747180800

Untrace. Bought by a QS bot

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/8153650236

Currently listed on mannco

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164814063#!/compare/1748563200/1748649600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044687671#!/compare/1748390400/1748649600

Bulk

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218942239#!/compare/1749340800/1749513600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164814063#!/compare/1749427200/1749513600

Untrace

Sale 9, 10, 11

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31074;5;u127

Sold for $28.99 on the 21.05, 22.07, 07.08

Keys were:

21.05 - $1.94 (28.99/1.94) = 14.9

22.07 - $1.99 (28.99/1.99) = 14.56

07.08 - $1.87 (28.99/1.87) = 15.502

Sellers

BPTF - https://imgur.com/a/GC8VY4z - 15 keys

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31074;5;u127 - 1 @ 28.99, 1 @ $40

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Ghastly+Grove+El+Mostacho - None

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20El%20Mostacho?filter=Ghastly+Grove - https://imgur.com/a/hO7FQ4w - 6 for sale. Lowest at $55.38aud (~14.9 keys)

Sales:

14.9, 14.56, 15.502

Considering the sale at 15.5 can pretty much go either way, there being two sellers at 15 (not including the mptf one) and there are two other sales that round to 15; doesn't seem justifiable to round up to 16 especially key prices being decently low at the moment.

Going with 15 keys flat