Sale 1:

Sold to a bot for 11 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214429536#!/compare/1754438400/1755302400 - Near ID: 16046091667

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1755129600/1755216000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Moth%20Plague%20Nightbane%20Brim&at=2025-08-20T07:06:23.393Z - labelled as 11 keys + 5.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/15938837921

Capi is Towelie Bot’s owner, they retrieved it from their bot before it was scanned in the bot’s inventory. The keys and metal are grouped with another trade, but we can clearly see the 11 keys + 5.66 ref that were involved.

= 11 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 11 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199047727506#!/compare/1755475200/1755561600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199536459741#!/compare/1755475200/1755561600

https://backpack.tf/item/15870776229

= 11 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31308;5;u265

https://backpack.tf/item/12207606550 - one of them

https://backpack.tf/item/15675839521 - anotha one

$29, June 6th, 11th, 27th, & July 3rd

$29.99, August 5th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.93, June 6th

$1.95, June 11th

$1.99, June 27th

$2, July 3rd

$1.89, August 5th

29/1.93 = 15.026, rounds to 15 keys

29/1.95 = 14.872, rounds to 15 keys

29/1.99 = 14.573, rounds to 15 keys

29/2 = 14.5, rounds to 15 keys

29.99/1.89 = 15.868, rounds to 16 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198181652409#!/compare/1751673600/1752278400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199017959799#!/compare/1752192000/1752278400

https://backpack.tf/item/15892446659

Gambled

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199017959799#!/compare/1752624000/1752710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1752624000/1752710400

https://backpack.tf/item/15892446659

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1752969600/1753056000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107789700#!/compare/1719532800/1754352000

https://backpack.tf/item/15892446659

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209609845#!/compare/1751673600/1755216000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198315558870#!/compare/1755302400/1755388800

https://backpack.tf/item/15870776229

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198315558870#!/compare/1755302400/1755388800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199047727506#!/compare/1755302400/1755388800

https://backpack.tf/item/15870776229

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199315750943#!/compare/1752278400/1752364800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1752278400/1752364800

https://backpack.tf/item/15795302500

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199217798362#!/compare/1751500800/1752624000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1752192000/1752278400

https://backpack.tf/item/15204730877

Bulk for Malevolent Monoculi Bightbane Brim

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199186541168#!/compare/1753833600/1754006400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198848599586#!/compare/1753833600/1755043200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Moth%20Plague%20Nightbane%20Brim&at=2025-08-20T07:06:23.393Z - labelled as 14 keys + 14.11 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/12184184639

Although we do see exactly 14 keys + 14.11 ref on the seller’s compare link, I’m confused by the history, as gladiator states the former owner of the hat is the buyer here. If it weren’t for this oddity, I’d count this as 14.

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214429536#!/compare/1753315200/1753660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192088525#!/compare/1753488000/1753574400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Moth%20Plague%20Nightbane%20Brim&at=2025-08-20T07:06:23.393Z - labelled as 11 keys + 2.44 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/12197207925

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/15748794160 - transferred to main, or otherwise untraceable

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/qwQtIGJ.png

https://i.imgur.com/wmaWj06.png

https://backpack.tf/item/12576645165 - ~14.3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/15204730877 - ~14.3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12184184639 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12197207925 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/15959488725 - marketplace

Buyers at ~11.1 keys

Sales at:

11 (2x)

15 (4x, marketplace)

16 (marketplace)

We have an abundance of bot dumps, most of which are untraceable (#2, #6, #7, #9). Excluding 11 wouldn’t be ideal here. Keeping 11 in the range, despite the buyers.

Going to keep the range concise here, and exclude 16. Don’t want to stray too far from the sellers at ~14.3 keys, and the majority of marketplace sales end up at around 15 keys worth anyway.

Taking 11-15 keys.