Sale 1:

Sold for 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1753401600/1753488000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377568253#!/compare/1753315200/1753401600

https://backpack.tf/item/13970042871

= 15 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 14 keys + 25 ref (<0.5)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1754784000/1754870400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199505853234#!/compare/1754784000/1754870400

https://backpack.tf/item/14196437906

= 14 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 13 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882175555#!/compare/1754438400/1754524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199235704407#!/compare/1754438400/1754524800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Frosty%20Flavours%20Nightcap&at=2025-08-23T14:49:08.521Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/16016244168

= 13 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 12 keys + over half a key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260896310#!/compare/1751155200/1751500800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1751414400/1751500800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Frosty%20Flavours%20Nightcap&at=2025-08-23T14:49:08.521Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/15894868068

= 13 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1751068800/1751155200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277799195#!/compare/1751068800/1751155200

https://backpack.tf/item/14432673245

= 12 keys

Sale 6:

Sold for 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1751068800/1751155200 - Near ID: 15882528705

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277799195#!/compare/1751068800/1751155200

https://backpack.tf/item/14432673245

= 12 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31422;5;u315

$33.88, May 29th

$31.88, July 8th & 13th Aug

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.93, May 29th

$2.02, July 8th

$1.82, August 13th

33.88/1.93 = 17.554, rounds to 18 keys

31.88/2.02 = 15.782, rounds to 16 keys

31.88/1.82 = 17.516, rounds to 18 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199017139999#!/compare/1750809600/1750896000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1750809600/1750896000

https://backpack.tf/item/14342514855

Untraceable, Bulkish to Quicksell.store

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890201364#!/compare/1750636800/1751846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1751241600/1751328000

https://backpack.tf/item/14262852668

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1752883200/1752969600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157525057#!/compare/1752278400/1753315200

https://backpack.tf/item/14196437906

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157525057#!/compare/1753315200/1753488000 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1754006400/1754092800

https://backpack.tf/item/14196437906

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198804966326#!/compare/1755388800/1755388800 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1755388800/1755475200

https://backpack.tf/item/14063432678

Untraceable/Bulk

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377568253#!/compare/1753574400/1753660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045611871#!/compare/1755388800/1755475200

https://backpack.tf/item/13970042871

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098776492#!/compare/1754092800/1754697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192088525#!/compare/1754784000/1754870400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Frosty%20Flavours%20Nightcap&at=2025-08-23T14:49:08.521Z - labelled as 13 keys + 2.55 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/16030610900

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199593669692#!/compare/1753315200/1753315200 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882175555#!/compare/1754179200/1754265600

https://backpack.tf/item/16016244168

Untraceable/Bulk

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277799195#!/compare/1755302400/1755907200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Frosty%20Flavours%20Nightcap&at=2025-08-23T14:56:39.761Z

https://backpack.tf/item/14432673245 - labelled as 13 keys + 22.77 ref

Buyer not scanned. Untraceable.

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/FZOU51O.png

https://i.imgur.com/YHc0zDN.png

https://backpack.tf/item/14262852668 - ~14.6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14335692458 - 18 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13970042871 - 24 keys

Buyers at ~13.9 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31422;5;u315

https://backpack.tf/item/15413884518 - $31.88

https://backpack.tf/item/15965487853 - $31.88

https://backpack.tf/item/15180219180 - $31.88

https://backpack.tf/item/15750184558 - $31.88

https://backpack.tf/item/13944218217 - $50

https://backpack.tf/item/13888481909 - $50

Sales at:

12 (2x)

13 (2x)

14

15

16 (marketplace)

18 (2x, marketplace)

We have 2 more potential sales at ~13 keys (#7 & #9), meaning potentially over half of the sales we have here are under current buy orders. It’s reasonable to assume that buyers have significantly and drastically raised only recently, especially when considering both the 12 key sales weren’t bot dumps. With this influx of buyers reaching 14 keys, it’s possible that they can end up disappearing suddenly, so if I were to exclude sales below these buy orders, we’d have nothing to counter them. I think including 13 in the range here would be reasonable. I will be excluding 12 for now, however.

With a seller at ~14.5 keys being unsold for 2 months, and a seller at 18 being unsold for 6 months, it would be best to exclude the sales at 18, which already look like outliers.

Taking 13-16 keys.

(this concludes round 1 of my unpriced project, for the hats at least)