Suggestion: Burning Flames Blast Defense at 169–200 keys

Sale 2: Sold for a Green Energy Nasty Norsemann, a Verdatica Fire Fighter, a Massed Flies Hat with No Name, a The Beep Man, and 31 keys. Given that a good portion of the trade needs to be micro'd here, it will be excluded from the pricing range but used as support.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1753833600/1753920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975508167#!/compare/1753833600/1753920000

Given that there are no movements for the GE Nasty Norsemann available to make an up to date suggestion, and the price is outdated, I'll micro it at buyers for 107.97 keys. Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/Dzi6l0K

Verdatica Fire Fighter is in-date at 31.5 keys.

Massed Flies Hat with No Name open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68c84b751a04787b3f04f627

Taking 16 keys.

The Beep Man has only two sales through Gladiator available for a mini, one that is a spelled sale and the other which is below buyers. Since the range on this is relatively small at 23 keys for the only non-spelled sellers and 19.19 keys for non-spelled/painted buyers, and the only in-date sale is at buyers I'll micro this at buyers for 19.19 keys. Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/CQ5XQZp

107.97k + 31.5 + 16 + 19.19 + 31 = 205.66 keys for Sale 2.

Sale 3: Sold for an Aurora Borealis Taunt: Conga, a Stormy Storm Buccaneer's Bicorne, a Stormy Storm Caribbean Conqueror, a Runic Imprisonment Taunt: The Drunken Sailor, and 20 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198858343635#!/compare/1754524800/1754611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975508167#!/compare/1754611200/1754697600

Aurora Borealis Taunt: Conga open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68c84f67cadf517bea0ae0c5

Taking 60 keys for this.

Stormy Storm Buccaneer's Bicorne is in-date at 54.5 keys.

While doing the Stormy Storm Caribbean Conqueror mini, it's only valid in-date sale was for an unusualifier (17k) and a hat (20k), along with 13 keys in adds on the Conq's side, making it below buyers and not pricable. Based off this being the only sale for it in-date, I'm going to micro it at sellers of 24.48 keys, but I've included the mini's draft as a micro below for info:

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Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/3423498371

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198282441973#!/compare/1751673600/1757894400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1751587200/1751673600

Sale 2: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1752192000/1752278400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035925841#!/compare/1751932800/1752537600

Sale 3: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1753056000/1753142400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035925841#!/compare/1752537600/1753315200

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/11061703348

Sale 1: Sold for 20 keys, 45.11 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337678079#!/compare/1752710400/1752796800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359390706#!/compare/1752710400/1752796800

Sale 2: Untrace, gets dumped in Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359390706#!/compare/1752883200/1752969600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960802971#!/compare/1752883200/1752969600

Sale 3: Dumped to Quicksell.store for 21 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960802971#!/compare/1752883200/1752969600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1752883200/1752969600

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/12663479930

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198858343635#!/compare/1754524800/1754611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975508167#!/compare/1754611200/1754697600

Sale 2: Sold alongside 13 keys for a Shrieking Shades Spooky Head-Bouncers and a Non-Craftable Unusual Taunt: Mannrobics Unusualifier

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064850234#!/compare/1755302400/1755388800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975508167#!/compare/1755216000/1755302400

Shrieking Shades Spooky Head-Bouncers open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68c864e8d7376cd4280546cf

Taking 20 keys for this.

Non-Craftable Unusual Taunt: Mannrobics Unusualifier open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68c860bc100a61aa4b01b475

Taking 17 keys for this.

37 keys in items - 13 keys in adds gives us 24 keys for Sale 2.

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/12940564124

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085068786#!/compare/1752537600/1757894400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1756944000/1757030400

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/kVmBp2E

Only one in-date sale at 24 keys, below buyers. :(

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Runic imprisonment isn't priceable either, micro is below:

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Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/12298701683

Sale 1 is this sale.

Sale 2: Bulk sale

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975508167#!/compare/1755475200/1755561600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1755561600/1755648000

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/12237734966

Movements seem to be bot deposit/withdraws in bulk, included for info.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101376092#!/compare/1754524800/1754697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199195259806#!/compare/1754438400/1754524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199195259806#!/compare/1756252800/1756339200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101376092#!/compare/1756252800/1756339200

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/11293799198

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087216254#!/compare/1750896000/1753142400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1750896000/1750982400

Sale 2: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1754352000/1754438400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275862898#!/compare/1754352000/1754611200

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/PmWMnCt

Microing this at the generic buyers of 2 keys, 9 ref, or 2.17 keys using the 52.72 ref key price.

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Total value for sale 3: 60k + 54.5k + 24k + 2.17k + 20k = 160.67k for Sale 3.

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/6232073483

Sale 1: BP buyout

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146333046#!/compare/1752192000/1753228800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198315210497#!/compare/1752883200/1753142400

Sale 2: 175k pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198315210497#!/compare/1755129600/1755216000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054912875#!/compare/1755129600/1755216000

Sale 3: 1:1'd for a Purple Energy Blast Defense. Given that even valuing this at sellers would still put it below buyers for the Burning Flames BD, going to exclude this from pricing.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165462530#!/compare/1755388800/1755561600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054912875#!/compare/1755302400/1755561600

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/5841243766

Sale 1: 169 keys 21.33 ref, we see seller receive 131 keys (the sniper is grouped but unrelated), large sample of keys/ref share histories

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1755043200/1755129600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198967088046#!/compare/1754956800/1755129600

Converting this to 169.4k using the 52.72 ref key price for later.

Sale 2: 187k pure, my beloved matching key is attached below

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198967088046#!/compare/1755561600/1755907200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143768590#!/compare/1755648000/1755734400

https://backpack.tf/item/16000966826

Marketplace sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30863;5;u13

Sold for $360 on Aug 28th and Sept 1st.

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Key prices for these days are $1.81 and $1.8

Aug 28th: $360/$1.81 = 198.9k

Sept 1st: $360/$1.8 = 200k

Sales at 160.67k, 169k, 169.4k 175k, 187k, 190k, 198.9k, 200k, and 205.66k (excluded)

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/8l41IMq

Omitting the sale at 160.67k as it's just above buy orders. Sale at 205.66k excluded, as it relies on micros for a majority of it's price, and even then, is an outlier. Our classifieds listing at $360 can also be disregarded, as it's simply not updated, and there are no BF Blast Defenses for sale on mp.tf after the two sales occurred. With a relatively tight spread on the remaining sales, taking the lowest sale at 169k and the highest sale at 200k will work as a refresher.