Frozen hat... mini for a mini for a mini...

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/3271502929

Sale 1: Sold alongside three Disco Beat Down Baseball Bill's Sports Shines, and a Revenant's Rack Dancing Doe for a Stellar Ascent Herald's Helm and 10 keys (using this for the Helm)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1751328000/1751414400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055622215#!/compare/1751328000/1751414400

This is being used to price the Stellar Ascent Herald's Helm.

Sale 2: Sold alongside 200 keys for a Chiroptera Venenata Respectless Robo-Glove and a Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Scattergun spelled with Exorcism. Compare shows seller receiving 100k, but counted 200k in outbound keys from buyer + screenshot from them also saying they sold for 200.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292929614#!/compare/1752105600/1752192000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1752105600/1752192000

Convo with seller: https://imgur.com/a/qdlzMoO

Chiroptera Venenata Respectless Robo-Glove open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68c7468c8387131a5807b86e

Taking 363 keys.

The Scattergun used in this was later traded for 400k, the sale from compares is incomplete though, we have some keys that match histories but not the full 400, and the Scatter doesn't show up in seller's compare due to speed of sale:

https://backpack.tf/item/4123722369

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111648936#!/compare/1752192000/1752278400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1752105600/1752192000

Matching keys sample:

https://backpack.tf/item/15893815677

https://backpack.tf/item/15511427674

https://backpack.tf/item/6227888976

Scattergun micro:

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The Scattergun's movements after this are an incomplete sale and an untrace sale, and there's a huge disparity in buy/sell orders for Exo Aussie scatters (buyers at 230k, sellers at 550k) so I'm microing this based off of two Marketplace sales, and any valid movements I can find of the 273 searchable. Majority of in-dates were bugged dupe movements unfortunately, but we got one sale!

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/8385156679

Sale 1: 540k pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132741569#!/compare/1756857600/1756944000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199578881954#!/compare/1756425600/1756944000

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/200;11;australium;kt-3

Sales at $724.99 on Jun 21st and $799.99 on Aug 13th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Key prices for these days are $1.98 and $1.82

Jun 21st sale: $724.99 / $1.98 = 366.15k

Item from Jun 21st sale: https://backpack.tf/item/15855524076

Aug 13th sale: $799.99 / $1.82 = 439.55k

Item from Aug 13th sale: https://backpack.tf/item/16041375348

Histories included to prove both sales are spelled.

Sales at 366.15k, 400k, 439.55k, and 540k. Rounding the 366.15k to 366k, and using the midpoint between the low and high sales to give us 453k. Capping this at the buyer's sale of 400 keys regardless, but good info.

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Sale 2 value is 363k + 400k - 200k in adds on the side of the Bucket Hat, giving us 563 keys.

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/G7qavf2

Important to note that the 5 months unsold at 600 which might be a bit worrisome for pricing at 563k was listed at 700k about a month ago, link to the most recent snapshot featuring this listing below (to keep it visible for as long as possible), as well as a screenshot of the oldest available at the time of making this suggestion.

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Frostbite%20Bomber's%20Bucket%20Hat/68a3202222fbe1a95515ea67

8/17 Snapshot Perma-link: https://imgur.com/a/njC8Cp7

Based on these dates, it was listed for 600k on 8/18 at 11am.

One valid in-date sale of 563 keys, not excluded by sellers or buyers. Taking this for the value.