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Chilly cone.
Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/3399523097
First movement is from a banned user, ignoring.
Sale 1: Sold for a Burning Flames Crone's Dome, a Poisoned Shadows Outdoorsman, and a Strange Professional Killstreak Original (FH/TS kit)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198860735519#!/compare/1755216000/1755302400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072725528#!/compare/1755216000/1755302400
Poisoned Shadows Outdoorsman open suggestion: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68cc0f6a7230926c00004c52
Poisoned Shadows Outdoorsman stats: https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Outdoorsman/Tradable/Craftable/76
Taking 650k.
Burning Flames Crone's Dome open suggestion (Thank you PlantFoodClock): https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68b4b51a68837c68ef0af2db
Burning Flames Crone's Dome stats: https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Crone's%20Dome/Tradable/Craftable/13
Taking 715k.
FH/TS kit on the Strange Original is worth noting, and for the micro for this specifically, it's movement right after is easy to value.
Sold 1:1 for a Steaming Exquisite Rack
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198860735519#!/compare/1756080000/1756512000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200266727#!/compare/1756425600/1756512000
Steaming Exquisite Rack is in-date at 222.5 keys, so taking this for the value here.
Total value for Sale 1: 650 + 715 + 222.5 = 1587.5k
Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/3292686935
Sale 1: Sold for a Spectral Fire Snowmann, a Revenant's Rack Dancing Doe, a Disco Beat Down Baseball Bill's Sports Shine
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068703263#!/compare/1751846400/1751932800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1751846400/1751932800
Better used to establish a second sale on the Snowmann.
Sale 2: 1182k, but keys don't share a history, presumably from a date mismatch, marking as untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1752364800/1752451200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111080251#!/compare/1752537600/1752624000
Sale 3: Sold for a Frostbite Dread Hiding Hood and a Death at Dusk Brown Bomber
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111080251#!/compare/1752969600/1753056000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1752969600/1753056000
Brown Bomber isn't priceable, so excluding this.
Sale 4: Sold 1:1 for a Sunbeams Exquisite Rack
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1754956800/1755043200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240217520#!/compare/1754870400/1755043200
Sunbeams Exquisite Rack open suggestion (Thank you Axon Kicker Oracle): https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68b60fa207277af1ea04b363
Sunbeams Exquisite Rack stats: https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Exquisite%20Rack/Tradable/Craftable/17
Taking 1704 keys here for Sale 4.
Sale 5: Incomplete, looks like it sells for 865 keys and a Burning Flames Vive La France, but even valuing BF Vive at sellers around 180k~ would put this sale at 1045, below buy orders at 1050k for the Cone.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140382756#!/compare/1756166400/1756339200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240217520#!/compare/1756166400/1756339200
Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/3638946924
Sale 1: Sells for 607k, a Scorching Flames Hong Kong Cone, a Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher, a Strange Professional Killstreak Disciplinary Action, an Exorcism Strange Professional Killstreak Bushwacka, a Sinister Staining The Bruiser's Bandanna
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065206206#!/compare/1750550400/1751328000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1751241600/1751328000
Scorching Flames Hong Kong Cone open suggestion (Thank you Jame!): https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68c754c77193da2bbf00b3ac
Scorching Flames Hong Kong Cone stats:https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Hong%20Kong%20Cone/Tradable/Craftable/14
Taking 537.5k for this.
While there is a small and easy range to take this for this Aussie RL, it also does have a Tornado/VV kit, so I'll be microing it at buyers for that at 92 keys, rather than the generic range of 77-78k. There are tons of buyers for that specific kit at 92 keys, and one recently listed at 94 keys, but given the majority that are valuing buyers at 92, I'll use that value (and it makes a negligible difference given the amount of keys here).
Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/j1VJ42i
For the Str. PKS Disc. Action, no buyers above generic for the kit listed, difference between sellers/buyers is <.5k, microing this at buyers of 14.55k.
Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/Vi3wN6K
For the Exo. Str. PKS Buckwacka, using the value that it was traded after for. Sale for 14 keys:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1755907200/1755993600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802642610#!/compare/1755907200/1756512000
Buyers at 11k, only on market is unsold for 4 months at 25 keys, so the 14 key sale here should be fine.
Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/IO7v84k
Buyer's Sinister Staining Bandana is cheapest on market and unsold for 4 months at 28 keys, buyers are at 4.1 keys. Found 3 movements, but all are bulk (two bulk spell sales, and a backpack buyout/bulk). They'll be listed below for info, but seeing as this is unpriceable, and makes up a negligible amount of the overall trade, I'll micro it at buyers of 4.1k.
-----
Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/16092457363
Sale 1: Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1755475200/1755561600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074830897#!/compare/1755475200/1755648000
Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/16110381242
Sale 1: BP buyout/bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091228424#!/compare/1756252800/1756425600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1756252800/1756425600
Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/15907544320
Sale 1: Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198942593332#!/compare/1751760000/1752278400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062420532#!/compare/1751414400/1751846400
Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/R09q1gN
-----
Total value for Sale 1: 607 + 537.5 + 92 + 14.55 + 11 + 4.1 = 1266.15k
Sale 2: Sold alongside a Blizzardy Storm Exquisite Rack, a Strange Professional Killstreak Rocket Launcher, a Max's Severed Head, and a Snowfall Taunt: Conga for a It's a Secret to Everybody Tyrant's Helm
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065206206#!/compare/1751932800/1752105600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115841780#!/compare/1751932800/1752105600
It's a Secret to Everybody Tyrant's Helm is unpriceable without this sale, would be better used there.
Sale 3: Sold for a Power Surge Crone's Dome, The Ooze Dread Hiding Hood, and a Sulphurous Dr's Dapper Topper
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115841780#!/compare/1754179200/1754265600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258937500#!/compare/1754006400/1754179200
While looking into the Power Surge Crone's Dome, all 3 of it's movements thus far are bulk, making it unpriceable. This is also true of the The Ooze Dread Hiding Hood, as they were moved in the same bundle alongside other adds twice, with the third time being with unrelated items. Will include it below for info on this sale's exclusion.
-----
Power Surge Crone's Dome: https://backpack.tf/item/4509090566
The Ooze Dread Hiding Hood: https://backpack.tf/item/3120815339
Sale 1: Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1753488000/1753574400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258937500#!/compare/1753488000/1753574400
Sale 2 is the sale above.
Sale 3: Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115841780#!/compare/1757462400/1757548800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1757462400/1757548800
-----
Sale 4: Sold for 1140k and an Exorcism Strange Professional Killstreak Festive Ambassador (33k connect on sellers' side, other exo sales and the Arcana BC, Exo Luger, and Demonflame Hetman's are in their own trade, see 3rd compare)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1754179200/1754265600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258937500#!/compare/1754179200/1754265600
3rd compare: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043861356#!/compare/1754179200/1754265600
Seller's amby went to a private inv, so can't use that value here. Given that the 15 key difference between buyers at 66.08k and sellers at 81k wouldn't change the outcome of rounding this sale to 1200k, microing this at buyers of 66.08k.
Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/sZYOIur
Total for sale 4: 1206.08k
Sale 5: Sold 738k, an Orbiting Planets Brainiac Hairpiece, a Cloudy Moon Handyman's Handle, and a Stormy Storm Rebel Rouser
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1756080000/1756166400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199235305952#!/compare/1756080000/1756166400
This is the only O. Planets Brainiac is the only non-spelled to move in the last 3 months, and in both of its movements serves as bulk. Given that the spread between buyers and sellers is over 100 keys for the OPlanets Brainiac, it's a non-negligible amount to lose in micro at buyers, so I'll exclude this sale from the pricing range.
Further movements seem buggy and one-sided, but I'll include them for info:
Looks to sell for some mixed unusuals here, but I can't find a shared history or GooStein owning the cone.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199235305952#!/compare/1756080000/1756166400
Looks to sell for a Circling TF Logo Exquisite Rack and 112 keys, but that's surely incomplete, as it would be about 500 keys below sellers, even valuing the Rack at sellers.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872222015#!/compare/1756252800/1756339200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882066402#!/compare/1756252800/1756339200
Classifieds link for the Cone: https://imgur.com/a/qDpWYV4
Sales at 1206.08k 1266.15k, 1587.5k, and 1704k. Excluding the sale at 1704, as it's 54 keys over sellers at 1650k, of which there are many. Taking our lowest sale of 1206.08k and rounding to 1200k, and our highest sale of 1587.5k and rounding to 1600k, and setting these two values for the range.
the 1200 sale is for a duped HKC
I sent this dilemma to Eazy for the moment (cause he is "online") but I will paste it below so no-one else dogpiles onto this chain
The lower two sales are both involved in a duped item
HOWEVER
this suggestion for the same item uses a duped one for 1350:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/66651f229c41a003dc03f975
which is okay since dupes can be used in a raise
but this one is a drop to 1200 using a non-duped item:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/672cb929bf4e76a441031f99
would that imply that in regards to this item specifically, generally people do not offer on duped vs non-duped any differently (or at least, with bias) and the lower sales can be used to make a range for the active suggestion?
Anyways, mods deciding time go brrrrrrrr
Some additional info I'm adding here for any mods checking this out:
Firstly, some lovely info I've got over the last 24 hours:
SchoolIsn'tCool brought the Demonflame Titanium Tyrolean to my attention, with a screenshot provided in the comments here regarding the full sale.
I went and priced the Tyrolean, which you can find here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68cd7931d0739e4875027a58
Basically, by taking 1050 keys for this, and the Circling TF Logo Exquisite Rack being in-date at 365 keys, and 35 keys in adds, we have a new sale under Item 3 for 1450 keys.
Additionally, SE sent me a trade offer providing info on Item 2's 5th sale, which you can find here: https://imgur.com/a/zQBqreX
This gives us another Sale for Item 2, where the 5th sale (although untrace/without full proof) at about 1210k, 1050k + 160k for the BF Vive (a simple midpoint between buyers/sellers, since it's not valid anyways), to clear up another one of the untrace sales.
While looking into Item 2 after SE sent this, this one is also duped. It's owned by both Molly Golly in the history, and then SE through all the proper sales/movements that occurred. This does mean that both Item 2's Sales 1 and 4 are also duped sales. The 1:1 for the Sunbeams Rack which is in-date at 1700 actually sold for ABOVE sellers of (presumably) unduped variants, and had to be excluded for this reason. Additionally, while I planned to use the Frostbite to establish a range on the Snowmann, if we take the Snowmann at it's only other sale (1:1'd for a 1200k hat), and add the Doe (160k open suggestion refresher) and the Sports Shine (114.5k in-date), we would have another sale of 1474.5k, which is half a key off of being able to round up to 1500, but we'll still take it as 1450.
This gives us one sale of an unduped Cone for 1600k in items (Item 1, Sale 1), and the following sales for duped:
Item 2, Sale 1: 1450k~ for the Frostbite, but still better used in giving the Snowmann a range, supportive
Item 2, Sale 4: 1700k in items
Item 2, Sale 5: 1210k~, 1050k pure + 160k~ in items (untrace due to incomplete compares, supportive)
Item 3, Sale 1: 1250k~ in items
Item 3, Sale 4: 1200k~ in intems
Item 3, Sale "6" mentioned in this comment: 1450k in primarily items
Given that the Cone's classifieds are not taking exceptions for clean/unclean, and that the duped variant has two sales in items similar in price (with the unduped Item 1 Sale 1 value being 1587.5k unrounded, and the Item 3 Sale 6 value being 1474.5k unrounded, this is a valid sale about 7.2%~ lower than the unduped value), as well as a sale above both unduped sales AND unduped SELLERS, there's definitely an argument to be made here that the duped/unduped variants have had multiple sales in a close enough proximity that they should be included in the range.
The sale with the circling tf logo rack (the bottom one) also involved a demonflame titanium tyrolean. it was also 35 keys, not 112, the compare put it with a different set of keys.
Image: https://imgur.com/a/Bz219Qf
Not sure if a mini, if one should exist, of the tryolean will screw things up, as i had bought it from the same guy i traded the hkc for. We valued it in the hkc trade the same as I bought it for. Essentially traded it back.
Edit: it's duped, scrap that
the FH/TS original had a spelled Ghastlierest Gibus involved as well however it would still round to 1600.