Originally drafted this on the 18th, delayed it due to a pending resuggestion that's essential for valuation here, will resuggest the whole chain should these change.

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/15321977970

Sale 1: Sold alongside a Stellar Ascent Herald's Helm for a Vivid Plasma Noh Mercy and 350k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1750723200/1750809600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175420885#!/compare/1746057600/1750809600

Sale 2: Sold alongside 300 keys and 8 Veteran's Attire for a Cuban Smoke Head Prize

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057811944#!/compare/1749600000/1750896000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1750809600/1750896000

Cuban Smoke Head Prize open suggestion: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68cc2115809ca1a7100c7bf9

Cuban Smoke Head Prize stats page in case of resugg: https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Head%20Prize/Tradable/Craftable/336

Taking 1100 keys for this.

Here's a fun micro for the Veteran's Attire:

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Gladiator perma-link:

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Veteran's%20Attire

Sales (30d):

2 @ 2 keys

1 @ 1 key 33.33 ref

1 @ 1 key 29.11 ref

1 @ 1 key 29 ref

6 @ 1 key 28.88 ref

3 @ 1 key 28.77 ref

2 @ 1 key 28.66 ref

1 @ 1 key 28.55 ref

3 @ 1 key 27.22 ref

2 @ 1 key 27.11 ref

1 @ 1 key 27 ref

1 @ 1 key 26.11 ref

1 @ 1 key 25.77 ref

1 @ 1 key 25.66 ref

2 @ 1 key 25.55 ref

1 @ 1 key 25.38 ref

1 @ 1 key 25.33 ref

2 @ 1 key 25.11 ref

1 @ 1 key 25 ref

1 @ 1 key 24.55 ref

1 @ 1 key 24.5 ref

1 @ 1 key 24.33 ref

2 @ 1 key 24.22 ref

3 @ 1 key 24.11 ref

1 @ 1 key 24 ref

1 @ 1 key 23.44 ref

1 @ 1 key 23 ref

1 @ 1 key 21.88 ref

1 @ 1 key 21.55 ref

1 @ 1 key 20.77 ref

2 @ 1 key 20.44 ref

1 @ 1 key 20.33 ref

2 @ 1 key 20.27 ref

1 @ 1 key 19.77 ref

1 @ 1 key 19.5 ref

2 @ 1 key 19.33 ref

3 @ 1 key 19.22 ref

2 @ 1 key 18.88 ref

1 @ 1 key 18.55 ref

1 @ 1 key 17.88 ref

1 @ 1 key 16.22 ref

1 @ 1 key 16 ref

1 @ 1 key 15.22 ref

1 @ 1 key 14.88 ref

2 @ 1 key 14.55 ref

Purchases (30d):

4 @ 1 key 28.88 ref

14 @ 1 key 28.77 ref

16 @ 1 key 28.66 ref

2 @ 1 key 28.55 ref

8 @ 1 key 28.44 ref

4 @ 1 key 28.22 ref

2 @ 1 key 28 ref

6 @ 1 key 25.66 ref

14 @ 1 key 25.55 ref

10 @ 1 key 25.44 ref

6 @ 1 key 25.33 ref

12 @ 1 key 25.22 ref

2 @ 1 key 25.11 ref

2 @ 1 key 25 ref

2 @ 1 key 24.88 ref

2 @ 1 key 24.77 ref

2 @ 1 key 23.77 ref

2 @ 1 key 23.33 ref

2 @ 1 key 23 ref

2 @ 1 key 22.88 ref

2 @ 1 key 22.55 ref

2 @ 1 key 22.33 ref

4 @ 1 key 22.27 ref

2 @ 1 key 22.16 ref

2 @ 1 key 22.11 ref

2 @ 1 key 22 ref

10 @ 1 key 21.88 ref

28 @ 1 key 21.77 ref

4 @ 1 key 21.66 ref

2 @ 1 key 20.66 ref

2 @ 1 key 20.33 ref

2 @ 1 key 20.22 ref

2 @ 1 key 20.11 ref

2 @ 1 key 20 ref

2 @ 1 key 19.88 ref

2 @ 1 key 19.77 ref

8 @ 1 key 19.55 ref

8 @ 1 key 19.44 ref

6 @ 1 key 19.33 ref

2 @ 1 key 19.22 ref

2 @ 1 key 19 ref

6 @ 1 key 18.66 ref

4 @ 1 key 18.33 ref

6 @ 1 key 17.22 ref

2 @ 1 key 17.11 ref

2 @ 1 key 16.88 ref

2 @ 1 key 16.66 ref

2 @ 1 key 16.22 ref

2 @ 1 key 15.55 ref

2 @ 1 key 14.88 ref

2 @ 1 key 14.77 ref

2 @ 1 key 14.66 ref

4 @ 1 key 13.88 ref

2 @ 1 key 13.33 ref

2 @ 1 key 12.22 ref

2 @ 1 key 8.22 ref

2 @ 1 key 7.66 ref

2 @ 1 key 7 ref

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/joCsErT

Given that there's a lot of sales (especially recently) on the lower end of these sales, excluding sales above 1 key 28.88 ref, as this is where they start becoming a significant amount (about 10%) of sales, and 25%~ of purchases as well. Also omitting the low end of sales, stopping at 1 key 13.88 ref, as this will put us above buyers.

Using current key price of 52.72: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/689f4dc83cea1bf49201b5c1

Low end: 1 key 13.88 ref / 52.72 = 1.263k

High end: 1 key 28.88 ref / 52.72 = 1.547k

Rounding 1.263k to 1.25k, and 1.547k to 1.55k, giving us the same 1.4k midpoint as 9 months ago! Hooray!

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Sale 2 value: 1100 - 300 - (8 * 1.4, 11.2k) =788.8k for Sale 2.

Edit to add classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/rRFOILO

One sale of 788.8k, rounding this to 790k per guidelines and taking this for the sole value.