Re-suggesting, new sales. Sales now over 3+ months are still included, but will be marked and considered when deciding the range.

Sale 1: (Outdated)

Sold to STN for 12 keys + ~1 key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1748131200/1748217600 - Near ID: 15774810005

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1748217600/1748304000

https://backpack.tf/item/15485799964

= 13 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 12 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199394480307#!/compare/1753228800/1753315200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1753228800/1753315200

https://backpack.tf/item/14184552054

= 12 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1754870400/1754956800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103405324#!/compare/1754611200/1755129600

https://backpack.tf/item/15558905645

https://imgur.com/CrN2Dkj - was listed for ~11.8. If metal was added with the hat, it’ll still round to 12.

= 12 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1754265600/1754352000 - Near ID: 16011064707

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093829935#!/compare/1754265600/1754352000

https://backpack.tf/item/15939586112

= 12 keys

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 12 keys + 17 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1757203200/1757289600 - Near ID: 16148058991

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1757203200/1757289600

https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513

= 12 keys

Sale 6:

Sold to STN for 11 keys + 38 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882175555#!/compare/1757808000/1757894400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1757721600/1757808000

https://backpack.tf/item/14443945495

Re-sold, but buyer hasn’t been scanned yet.

= 12 keys

Sale 7: (Outdated)

Sold to a bot for 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060071234#!/compare/1748217600/1748304000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389372563#!/compare/1748217600/1748304000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Radiant%20Rivalry%20Covert%20Covers&at=2025-08-12T15:02:30.896Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/14624461328

= 11 keys

Sale 8:

Sold to STN for 11 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067866328#!/compare/1753574400/1753833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1753488000/1753574400

https://backpack.tf/item/15485799964

The trade is mixed with another one on the seller’s end, only the last 11 keys + some of the metal matches.

= 11 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029652523#!/compare/1753315200/1753574400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1753315200/1753401600

https://backpack.tf/item/15616026811

Untraceable, 3 keys + some metal match

#2 (Outdated)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103405324#!/compare/1748563200/1749427200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173455463#!/compare/1749427200/1750636800

https://backpack.tf/item/14044783563

Untraceable, likely marketplace sale

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1751587200/1751673600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377055815#!/compare/1746403200/1752019200

https://backpack.tf/item/13892188539

Untraceable, likely bulk-ish

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1750982400/1751068800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067866328#!/compare/1750896000/1751068800

https://backpack.tf/item/15485799964

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103405324#!/compare/1755820800/1756252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004803157#!/compare/1756166400/1756252800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Radiant%20Rivalry%20Covert%20Covers&at=2025-08-27T10:40:25.151Z - labelled as 12 keys + 14.77 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/15558905645

Follows the 2nd 12 key purchase, re-sold for a profit, so not invalid.

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1754611200/1754697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081970832#!/compare/1725062400/1755907200

https://backpack.tf/item/14453534438

Bulk-ish on both ends

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198395478117#!/compare/1752105600/1755648000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439075368#!/compare/1754265600/1755648000

https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513

Untraceable, potentially scammed

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439075368#!/compare/1754265600/1755648000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199131345389#!/compare/1755561600/1755648000

https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199131345389#!/compare/1755561600/1755648000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1755561600/1755648000

https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513

Untraceable

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008005844#!/compare/1755993600/1756252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004803157#!/compare/1755993600/1756080000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Radiant%20Rivalry%20Covert%20Covers&at=2025-08-27T10:40:25.151Z - labelled as 12 keys + 14.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/16093874607

Untraceable, follows the July 12th marketplace

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060189392#!/compare/1757980800/1758067200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419349281#!/compare/1757808000/1758067200

https://backpack.tf/item/13892688724

Untraceable

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1757808000/1757894400 - Near ID: 16170271563

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1757808000/1757894400

https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513

12 keys match, i’m sure more was involved, at least more metal. The bot bought it for 12 keys + 17 ref.

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198380634252#!/compare/1756166400/1756252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1756166400/1756252800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Radiant%20Rivalry%20Covert%20Covers&at=2025-09-21T09:38:44.625Z - labelled as 12 keys + 14.77 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/15558905645

Untraceable

#14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1757808000/1757894400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1757808000/1757894400

https://backpack.tf/item/15939586112

Untraceable, 1 key matches

https://backpack.tf/item/14495782525 - sold to a marketplace seller

https://backpack.tf/item/13980545649 - sold to untraceable buyer

https://backpack.tf/item/14184552054 - listed on mannco, don’t know if by bot owner or someone that bought from the bot.

https://backpack.tf/item/14334659392 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/14243579947 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/13899790127 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/14065155174 - mannco

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31428;5;u312

https://backpack.tf/item/15366972477 - July 12th

https://backpack.tf/item/14515545374 - One of the June sales

https://backpack.tf/item/14033811501 - June 30th

https://backpack.tf/item/14010695923 - probably June 25th

https://backpack.tf/item/15558905645 - August 29th

https://backpack.tf/item/15939586112 - September 7th, instantly re-sold to a bot. https://backpack.tf/item/15939586112 - one from September 19th. Couldn’t find the remaining histories

$34.99, June 8th

$29.95, June 13th, July 12th, August 3rd & 29th, September 7th & 19th (2x)

$25.24, June 25th

$25.49, June 30th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - Keys were:

$1.93, June 8th

$1.95, June 13th

$2, June 25th & 30th

$2.02, July 12th

$1.90, August 3rd

$1.81, August 29th

$1.8, September 7th

$1.88, September 19th

34.99/1.94 = 18.036, rounds to 18 keys (Outdated)

29.95/1.95 = 15.359, rounds to 15 keys (Outdated)

29.95/2.02 =14.827, rounds to 15 keys

29.95/1.9 = 15.763, rounds to 16 keys

25.24/2 = 12.62, rounds to 13 keys

25.49/2 = 12.745, rounds to 13 keys

29.95/1.81 = 16.547, rounds to 17 keys

29.95/1.8 = 16.639, rounds to 17 keys (Invalid)

29.95/1.88 = 15.931, rounds to 16 keys (2x)

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/FQ6PBPU.png

https://i.imgur.com/MaURf7r.png - Buyers at ~11.2 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14293769126 - ~15.6 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31428;5;u312

https://backpack.tf/item/14140769513 - $29.95 (~16 keys)

https://backpack.tf/item/15939586112 - $29.95

Sales at:

11 (2x, 1 now outdated)

12 (5x)

13 (3x, 2 marketplace, non-marketplace sale now outdated)

15 (2x, marketplace, 1 now outdated)

16 (3x, marketplace)

17 (marketplace)

18 (marketplace, outdated)

With a magnitude of sales higher than the two at 11 (one of which is outdated), and buyers at ~11.2 keys, I will be excluding 11 now. This was included originally, as buyers weren’t as high, and sellers were below 12 keys.

The highest pure sale we have is at 13 keys, and that’s now outdated. I’m not inclined to include any sales higher than the 8 month old listing at ~15.5 keys with no pure sales at that price. Excluding 16+.

Taking 12-15 keys.