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Sale #1
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31540;5;u373
https://backpack.tf/item/15996288755
mp.tf sale on 9/11/25
$23.69 / $1.81 = 13.1
Rounding to 13
Sale #2
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31540;5;u373
mp.tf sale on 9/12/25
$23.69 / $1.82 = 13.0
Rounding to 13
Sale #3
https://backpack.tf/item/16107152356
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173416765#!/compare/1756425600/1757721600
Sale #4
https://backpack.tf/item/16103529930
7 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199684987486#!/compare/1757548800/1757635200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1757462400/1757548800
Sale #5
https://backpack.tf/item/16093220364
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199571611230#!/compare/1756684800/1757203200
Sale #6
https://backpack.tf/item/16093220364
8 keys 25 ref
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198248549564#!/compare/1758067200/1758240000 (ID: 16185069477)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094491529#!/compare/1758067200/1758153600
Rounding to 8.5
Sale #7
https://backpack.tf/item/16047645990
?
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219027272#!/compare/1756598400/1756771200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1756598400/1756684800
Sale #8
https://backpack.tf/item/16024728349
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161977280#!/compare/1754697600/1754956800
Sale #9
https://backpack.tf/item/15985746779
insane overpay
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199093907298#!/compare/1754956800/1755302400
Sale #10
https://backpack.tf/item/15985746779
Bulk for neutron star coldsnap
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198368964060#!/compare/1755129600/1755302400
Use there
Sale #11
https://backpack.tf/item/15985746779
Bulk for Time warp detective noir
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094964657#!/compare/1755302400/1755388800
use there
Sale #12
https://backpack.tf/item/15985746779
8 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094964657#!/compare/1755648000/1755820800 (ID: 16078917423)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199232380670#!/compare/1755734400/1755820800
Sale #13
https://backpack.tf/item/15985746779
insane overpay
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199093907298#!/compare/1754956800/1755302400
Sale #14
https://backpack.tf/item/15985746779
Bulk for neutron star coldsnap
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198368964060#!/compare/1755129600/1755302400
Use there
Sale #15
https://backpack.tf/item/15985746779
Bulk for Time warp detective noir
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094964657#!/compare/1755302400/1755388800
use there
Sale #16
https://backpack.tf/item/15985746779
8 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094964657#!/compare/1755648000/1755820800 (ID: 16078917423)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199232380670#!/compare/1755734400/1755820800
Sale #17
https://backpack.tf/item/15984877607
11 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103015460#!/compare/1755216000/1755561600 (ID: 16058365556)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033396801#!/compare/1755043200/1755561600
Sale #18
https://backpack.tf/item/15980550277
13 keys + ~5 key taunt
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133523358#!/compare/1753660800/1754352000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962488873#!/compare/1753660800/1753833600
Rounding to 18
From July, useless sale
Sale #19
https://backpack.tf/item/15973293955
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153378557#!/compare/1756339200/1757548800
Sale #20
https://backpack.tf/item/15971123257
Bulk for sunbeams sober stuntman
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157261738#!/compare/1756944000/1757116800
Use there
Sale #21
https://backpack.tf/item/15968416824
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198864678669#!/compare/1754265600/1754697600
Sale #22
https://backpack.tf/item/15968416824
12 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198864678669#!/compare/1754784000/1754870400
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199122138745#!/compare/1754611200/1754784000
Early august. Pointless sale
Sale #23
https://backpack.tf/item/15966533242
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198246700372#!/compare/1754006400/1754179200
Sale #24
https://backpack.tf/item/15966194051
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209728928#!/compare/1754352000/1754438400
Sale #25
https://backpack.tf/item/15965940510
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209728928#!/compare/1754179200/1754438400
Glad.tf sales
8 keys
8 keys
8 keys
8 keys
8 keys
8 keys
7 keys 1 ref
7 keys 1 ref
7 keys 1 ref
7 keys 1 ref
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Drunkard%20Le%20Sapeur&at=2025-09-21T17:54:29.972Z
Current sellers:
$23.69 on mp.tf
8.38 keys on bp.tf
8.57 keys on bp.tf (3x)
Sales: 13, 13, 7, 8.5, 8, 8, 11, 18 (useless), 12 (useless), 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 7, 7, 7, 7
There is no reason to take anything above 8 keys.
Final price: 7 - 8
There doesn't seem to be a strong rationale for excluding 8.5 keys, especially since higher sales are being excluded
Almost all the expensive sales are from the start of the update when hype was at its peak. Using only recent sales, it clearly points to 7-8. I think this suggestion should be kept open for a little while just to see if that trend continues
There's a decent unsold at 8.35 https://gyazo.com/683d899c0a9606b88e2636c325837cae so 8.5 is looking too high.