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~835 keys
vivid
Unusual Noh Mercy Vivid Plasma
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You know I had to do 43 suggestions or something to get you prepped? Stupid little mask. I hate you.


It's a mini anyways (or was checking to validate the Blast Defense sale). Deserved. Also I use formatting now, cause these things get really hard to read without any organization. Especially when you delete your drafts. Twice.


Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/345492388


Sale 1: Sold alongside 350k for a Stellar Ascent Herald's Helm and a Playful Aurora Patriot Peak.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1750723200/1750809600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175420885#!/compare/1746057600/1750809600


Stellar Ascent Herald's Helm mini can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68cda43e4786bbfb5105472f

Stellar Ascent Herald's Helm stats: https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Herald's%20Helm/Tradable/Craftable/294

Taking 1050 keys for this.


Playful Aurora Patriot Peak mini can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68cd98862a49d5d0bc0834c9

Playful Aurora Patriot Peak stats: https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Patriot%20Peak/Tradable/Craftable/371

Taking 790 keys for this.


Sale 1 value: 1050 + 790 - 350 = 1490k


Sale 2: Sold for 660k + a Sylicone Succiduous Blast Defense

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175420885#!/compare/1752364800/1757030400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1756944000/1757030400


Editing this to add that BD's open suggestion isn't changed due to this sale being bulk (for the BD), so adding it to the sales, despite it not changing the range.

Sylicone Succiduous Blast Defense open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68b88ce90823c10fbb0a9bff

Taking 186 keys.


Sale 2 value: 660 + 186 = 846k


Sale 3: Sold for a Roboactive Conquistador, Ghastly Ghosts Jr Full Metal Drill Hat, Sulphurous Das Übersternmann, Strange Purple Energy Brim of Fire, and a Delightful Doves Shadow Shroud, with the Shadow Shroud being insta-dumped for 94 keys to Flater.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1757289600/1757376000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055622215#!/compare/1756944000/1757376000

Shroud history: https://backpack.tf/item/15007021753

Renegade, skips Chman, straight to Flater, and the 94 keys in his history share w/ Flater, so taking 94 keys for the Shroud here.


Roboactive Conquistador is unpriceable, as this is the only movement, and it's bulk within that movement. Would have to micro it at buyers of 121.5k.

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/vUVmT67


Ghastly Ghosts Jr Full Metal Drill Hat open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68cda4de23d635c941096b1d

Taking 188 keys.


The Sulphurous Das Übersternmann is unpriceable, as it only has one other movement besides this trade, which you can find below:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1757808000/1757894400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198248209800#!/compare/1757030400/1757894400


Having sold for a Frostbite Letch's LED, a Strange Stormy Storm Heer's Helmet, and a Death at Dusk Mann of Reason.

All classifieds for those 3 items can be found here: https://imgur.com/a/a5bYt2n


The Str. Stormy Storm Heer's is unpriceable, as this it's only movement in-date, and it's bulk. Would micro this at buyers, of 27.01 for generic Heer's.


The Frostbite Letch's LED has an open suggestion available here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/689ffa2b9f01b4085b08a75a

With that open suggestion being a month old, I'm including other movements not covered in a small micro for info:


-----


Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/3306041468


Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1755216000/1755302400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081867433#!/compare/1755216000/1755302400


Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/15956772276


Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123883910#!/compare/1722124800/1753660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138534634#!/compare/1753747200/1753833600


-----


Taking 200 keys for this.


Lastly, the Death at Dusk Mann of Reason is unpriceable as well, movements will be documented below again as a micro:


-----


Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/3491135242


Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1751328000/1751414400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1751328000/1751414400


Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/3277245128


Sale 1 is bulk for the Ubersternmann.


Sale 2: Bot dumped same day from Sale 1 for less than buyers:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1757808000/1757894400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111970399#!/compare/1757808000/1757894400


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Since the dump was less than buyers at 88.19k, taking this value for the micro.


Ubersternmann value for this trade based off the 3 values above: 27.01k + 200k + 88.19k = 315.2k


The Strange PE Brim of Fire is also unpriceable, information attached below as a micro:


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Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/10356321210


Was listed on marketplace, but didn't have any sales when checked, presumably taken off marketplace, using the compares between who listed it and buyer under that assumption:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31185;5;u10;strange


Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198863508426#!/compare/1751068800/1751155200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198246544682#!/compare/1749168000/1751414400


Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/10539676553


Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045288265#!/compare/1752451200/1752624000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055622215#!/compare/1752537600/1752624000


Sale 2 is the Noh Mercy bulk sale.


Sale 3: Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840987606#!/compare/1757376000/1757462400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111648936#!/compare/1757376000/1757462400

Can't tell which key bundle Chman receives from Shaula is related, but granted that the lower one seems to match with the Aussie Medi/FT dump, and the top one is an Aussie Sticky + 66 keys (90k~ total value), this alongside the Non-Craftable Professional Killstreak Sniper Rifle Kit and Strange Professional Killstreak Ambassador would put it below buyers, so regardless of the theoretical max value it got here, it would be excluded/unpriceable regardless.


With no valid sales, will have to micro it at buyers of 62.08k.

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/y179jW1


-----


Total sale 3 value: 121.5k + 188k + 315.2k + 62.08k + 94k = 780.78k


Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/EbIQXS3

The 1350 listing is recent enough to not be problematic for our high-end sales here.


Sales at 780.78k, 846k, and 1490k, a big range, but a valid range! Rounding the 780.78k sale to 780k for the low end, and taking the 1490k sale for the high end.

    high end kinda countered by current seller at 1350 so eh. really depends on the definition of "recent enough" and how long mods will leave this open.

    (+ the 1350 is hte "outlier" here to begin with)


    If this is up in a month and 1350 still unsold, probs better to exclude.

      Yeah, I reached out to Chman regarding a buyout cap for the original sale, but they don't remember. They said 1400-1500k but that's a high range and non-definitive. The second time it was listed by them was for 1400k as well, but that's not conclusive of the original listing's buyout. This also did go for 1100k from Nekro's, back up to 1400k by Chman, and down to 1350 by Renegade now, so the buyouts have been weird. The midpoint is solid based on recent classifieds, but only due to an exceptionally low and an exceptionally high sale.


      Going to attach the classifieds snapshots for mod consideration here as well:

      https://imgur.com/a/jDs33Zt


      Without a definite buyout cap to reel in the upper range, depends solely on mod timing and any further movements.

      BRO WHAT IS THAT RANGE???? LMAOOOOOO

      1490 definitely looks like an outlier here given the previous b/o's as well as the distance between the other 2 sales.

      it would be best to exclude the high sale here.


      also for sale 2 i'm only seeing 620 keys in the first compare and a max of 631 keys on the buyers side.


      Strange Stormy Storm Heer's Helmet:

      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1759968000/1760054400

      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199485225128#!/compare/1759968000/1760054400 - sold for 51 keys


      Strange Purple Energy Brim of Fire:

      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111648936#!/compare/1761868800/1761955200

      https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043444428#!/compare/1761782400/1761868800 - sold for 68 keys