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The funny crack pot.
Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/16102998756
Sale 1: 40k pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198185551353#!/compare/1756684800/1756944000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044589114#!/compare/1756771200/1756857600
Sale 2: Bulk, can see seller's outbound has a Piercing Headache Fleet Commander and Piercing Headache Wavefinder and 10 keys that share history with buyer
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198406138209#!/compare/1758067200/1758153600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044589114#!/compare/1758067200/1758153600
Quick edit for classifieds, a snapshot of sellers for the item in Sale 2, and valuation for Sale 2's bulk:
Classifieds/snapshots from seller: https://imgur.com/a/SN5RP2U
Given that buyers for the other two items equal up to 48k, plus the 10 keys in pure added, can assume this is safely making up <50% of the trade offer.
One in-date sale at 40 keys, taking 40k.
multiple sales happened, ctzn said he had sold it for a BF kiss king + Fiesta royale Conga which is 80+ just in buy orders
guy then proceeded to gamble it , that's where I got it
Person they traded with seems to be a marked scammer? Their profile says "Using alt to fake positive trust, previous SR tag, likely still intending to scam", not sure when this was issued but if it needs a resuggest that's fine. Additionally, while looking into the Conga there is a marketplace sale at $75 on Aug 27th, which at $1.81 keys would make a sale of 41.43k, so even taking this + BF Kiss buyers (which I would still attempt to micro it), this would be a minimum of 98k~ or so which is double over the low end (and we would still need to then wait out a third sale to determine an outlier).
Will leave this info for mod interpretation if we should exclude that (probably should) or just wait out another sale, even if it's a trade with a scammer, should it sell for the listed at 125k~ then that sale would support the higher end. I imagine they'll leave it open and see how the one up right now fares, or if the one on marketplace sells.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198288038559#!/compare/1756771200/1756944000 - ?
It seems like the second sale wasn't a bulk sale. The Fleet Commander and Wavefinder quicksold the following day and never appear in ctzn's inventory, suggesting the trade for ctzn to get both of those was a separate transaction from the Jingler sale. It looks instead like 10 Keys were added to this Crack Pot for the Jingler. That said, it doesn't appear the Jingler has any other traceable sales.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198406138209#!/compare/1758153600/1758240000
The scammer trade isn't usable. However, this 40 Key sale occurred as soon as the Crack Pot became tradable, suggesting this was a quicksell that shouldn't be used to set a price. It'd be best to wait for another sale before pricing this.