Lighting the cigarette with a lightning strike would go kinda hard.

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/9495344969

Sale 1: Sold for a Circling Peace Sign Cotton Head, an Aurora Skies Crimbo Cap, an Orbiting Planets Hot Spaniel, 6 keys, and a High Roller's Rocket Launcher (Minimal Wear)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196029463#!/compare/1752278400/1752364800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199073805105#!/compare/1752278400/1752364800

Sale 2: Looks to have sold for 30 keys + keys used to buy a Miami Nights Tipped Lid, can't find keys entering STN bot to verify total amount, so marking as untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198390600299#!/compare/1752537600/1752710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196029463#!/compare/1752451200/1752537600

Lid: https://backpack.tf/item/15548487733

STN bot inv: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1752451200/1752537600

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/9203025349

Sale 1: 60k pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140316312#!/compare/1758499200/1758585600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043899395#!/compare/1758499200/1758585600

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/gmKN5gf

Worth noting that Erik's listing is gone and be ignored, looks to have sold on Jun 15th, so it's out of date at this time (and depending on keys at the time of sale, under buyers, but I can't see key values on MP for that date).

Single in-date sale at 60 keys, no (valid) listings countering, taking this for the sole value.