The humble midpoint:

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/11934032024

Sale 1: Sold for a Pumpkin Moon Bat Hat and 25 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214802583#!/compare/1750377600/1750550400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069980430#!/compare/1750204800/1750550400

PMoon Bat suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68e1e7c03a4909edbd09e308

Taking 200 keys, + 25 keys in adds gives us 225k for sale 1.

Sale 2: Sold in a 1:1 for a Death at Dusk Noble Amassment of Hats

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850407517#!/compare/1750896000/1750982400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069980430#!/compare/1750809600/1750982400

D@D Noble Amassment suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68e3ed93eff82ae5d5017cb7

Taking mid-point of 165 keys for this sale.

Screenshot of the snapshots from 8/17: https://imgur.com/a/HoZ32LS

Classifieds link (9/15): https://imgur.com/a/dnj596w

Classifieds link (10/6): https://imgur.com/a/JgriuR4

Sales at 165k and 225k, midpoint at 195k is also respective of the current unsold at 190. I'll still include the info regarding Absalonn's listing going from 222 down to 190 keys, and buy orders have come up from 62.5k to 150k, including buy orders from previous sellers. Sales are varied but this range supports the current market, and should it seller at 190, that would provide further support for it.

Taking 165k for the low-end, and 225k for the high-end.