Oh boy, I sure can't wait to see how many of these have moved!

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/16012884422

Sale 1: Untrace, no incoming key bundles from Java, checked a sample of outgoing and found none going to STN bot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1757548800/1757635200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059509731#!/compare/1757548800/1757635200

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/15988332146

Sale 1: Incomplete, looks like 26k connect, but due to the amount of time in seller's inventory, some were spent (presumably on the GFetti Shako). Counting outbound from buyer seems like 35k were share a history, but this is still below buyers.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199091006734#!/compare/1755216000/1756252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094365132#!/compare/1755648000/1755734400

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/15987725862

Sale 1: Untrace, nothing of value obtained by seller

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169883389#!/compare/1761782400/1761868800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211445756#!/compare/1761782400/1761868800

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/15909155531

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826739513#!/compare/1754524800/1756252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872222015#!/compare/1755993600/1756080000

Sale 2 (and Sale 2.5?): Okay, so this one is fun. It looks like this was actually traded to Italy for 50 keys (you can see 50 keys incoming from Italy to the seller's inventory, with nothing going out besides the taunt), and nothing goes to the buyer (on 8/25 > 8/26). Then the item doesn't appear in the buyer's inventory until 9/8 > 9/9, also coming from Italy, in exchange for a Death's Daggers Sky High Fly Guy.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872222015#!/compare/1756080000/1756166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198391942981#!/compare/1757289600/1757376000

Counting the movement from Volx to Italy as Sale 2 for 50k, and the sale from Italy to Dope for the value of the the Daggers Fly Guy for Sale... 2.5?

Open suggestion for the DD SHFG can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6904c49871d37f88dd074c3a

Taking 63.5k for this sale.

Sale 3: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198391942981#!/compare/1758672000/1758758400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200970331#!/compare/1758585600/1758758400

Sale 4: 64k pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200970331#!/compare/1759276800/1759449600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022776135#!/compare/1759363200/1759449600

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/15461144430

Sale 1: 58k pure (58k bundle from buyer on seller's side)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1757894400/1757980800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150382528#!/compare/1757808000/1757980800

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/14645508746

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199000866657#!/compare/1756771200/1756857600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244962432#!/compare/1756771200/1756857600

Sale 2 is the marketplace sale on Oct 6th, below.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199387798357#!/compare/1759708800/1759968000

Item 7: https://backpack.tf/item/14284781757

Sale 1: Untrace, checked MannCo and saw no sales history

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199490580844#!/compare/1753315200/1754611200

Item 8: https://backpack.tf/item/13943674328

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159922848#!/compare/1758412800/1759708800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198262585528#!/compare/1759536000/1759708800

Item 9: https://backpack.tf/item/13428726547

Movement from Lean is still non-unusual, excluded.

Sale 1: STN dump, untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198942323359#!/compare/1757030400/1757116800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1757030400/1757116800

Sale 2: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199237594600#!/compare/1755993600/1757635200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1757116800/1757203200

Sale 3: Untrace redump to STN

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199237594600#!/compare/1759881600/1760572800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1760140800/1760227200

Sale 4: Untrace STN pickup

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1760140800/1760227200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199542079459#!/compare/1760227200/1760313600

Put on Scrap.tf for auction/storage, withdrawn.

Sale 5: 65k pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199542079459#!/compare/1760400000/1760486400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037927045#!/compare/1760400000/1760486400

Item 10: https://backpack.tf/item/13347392339

Sale 1: Looks to have been 1:1'd for a Cool Killstreak Dovetailed Medi Gun (Field-Tested) with ThaBoy before selling the Medi Gun to Wilson for 2 hats.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1760918400/1761091200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199020247849#!/compare/1761004800/1761091200

Medi history: https://backpack.tf/item/8949074612

For simplicity, microing this at the what the Medi was sold for same day, which is a Frantic Spooker Beanie the All-Gnawing, and a Tesla Coil Cranial Carcharodon.

Frantic Spooker Beanie the All-Gnawing has an open suggestion here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68ff715c4c602320ed045d9d (Thank you Emeli)

Taking 12 keys.

Microing the Tesla Coil Cranial Carcharodon at buyers of 33.9 keys. Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/tNQNztE

Total for Sale 1 is 33.9k + 12k, for 45.9k total.

Item 11: https://backpack.tf/item/8833729893

Sale 1: Picked up off STN for 29 keys, a Summer Wave Taunt: Mannrobics, and a Lost Signal Taunt: Roar O'War.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070980833#!/compare/1759104000/1759190400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1759104000/1759190400

Microing these would put this below buyers, so excluding.

Sale 2: Dumped back to STN, untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070980833#!/compare/1759795200/1759968000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1759881600/1759968000

Sale 3: Untrace STN pickup

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1759968000/1760054400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1759968000/1760054400

Item 12: https://backpack.tf/item/7520058181

Sale 1 is the marketplace sale on Aug 23rd, listed below.

Item 13: https://backpack.tf/item/6014443553

Sale 1: 50k pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095024090#!/compare/1759968000/1761868800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074455967#!/compare/1760918400/1761091200

Item 14: https://backpack.tf/item/4615303302

This had an SCM sale presumably, but I can't see any exceptionally high sales in the dates it left their inventory or entered the buyers as an untradable. Could've also been done by the buyer and then marked as untradable due to the unusualifier. Either way, it's been checked, but is untrace/unusable.

Item 15: https://backpack.tf/item/4603329107

All movements seem to be bot withdrawals/deposits.

Item 16: https://backpack.tf/item/4449521568

Unusualified by Lancer.

Date mismatch occurs due to Lancer having dumped the taunt to Italy for 40 keys, who then traded it for the Lost Signal Bear Hug with no inventory history.

https://imgur.com/a/iOrvV2a

This sale would be excluded anyways for being at buyers, but worth noting for the mismatch and history discrepancy.

Sale 1: 1:1'd for a Lost Signal Bear Hug

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094295091#!/compare/1754956800/1755043200

Microing this at buyers for a supportive sale. Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/7qYULyD

Taking 53 keys for Sale 1.

Item 17: https://backpack.tf/item/4408689724

All movements are untrace due to large backpack history discrepancies, seems like it doesn't appear unusual until Fowl's, so either done by them, or untrace.

Marketplace sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1162;5;u3200

Sold on Aug 23rd for $179.99, and Oct 6th for $147.99

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Keys on these dates are $1.84 for Aug 23rd, and $1.90 Oct 6th.

Aug 23rd: $179.99 / $1.84 = 97.82k

Oct 6th: $147.99 / $1.90 = 77.89k

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/cUFRj8r

Snapshots link (10/2): https://imgur.com/a/lFO74z5

Attaching a screenshot to show the volume of bot buy orders earlier in the month, just as a supportive exclusion of lower sales.

Sales at 45.9k (items/micro'd), 50k, 50k, 53k (supportive/micro'd), 58k, 63.5k, 64k, 65k, 77.89k, 97.82k. Excluding the sale at 45.9k, as this without micro's would likely be at 50k, and fit in the range, and excluding the two high-end marketplace sales as big outliers, and being omitted due to current unsolds at 70k. The remaining sales of 50-65k seem respective to the variety of sales points, as the two sales at 50 and the supportive sale at 53k are making up about a third of the valid movements. Taking 50k for the low end and 65k for the high end.