Suggestion: Delightful Doves Shadow Shroud at 90–130 keys

Blizzardy HH is in-date at 60k, GoST HH is in-date at 223k, and this open suggestion for the Kazotsky prices it at 31.5k, which can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68b9bf7f5ff3cc81bd02b25a

223k - 60k - 31.5k = 131.5k for this sale

Sale 2: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1754956800/1755043200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199273331599#!/compare/1749254400/1755043200

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/15034889618

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439498211#!/compare/1751414400/1751500800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044201839#!/compare/1750118400/1753401600

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/15007021753

Sale 1: Traded alongside a Dead Man's Party Taunt: The Crypt Creeper for a Hot Necromanced War Paint (Minimal Wear)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141685007#!/compare/1752624000/1752710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055622215#!/compare/1752624000/1752710400

Mini for the Hot Necromanced War Paint (Minimal Wear) can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68b9c894b2350435690eab48

Taking 170 keys

Micro for the Dead Man's Party Taunt:

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Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/13739784466

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1753401600/1753488000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137924934#!/compare/1753401600/1753488000

All other movements are bot deposits, or this sale.

Microing this at buy orders, given no valid movements in-date. Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/ce8pZVq

Taking 40 keys for this.

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War paint at 170k, taunt at 40k, 170 - 40 = 130k for the Shroud in this sale.

Item 7: https://backpack.tf/item/15006907139

Ignoring first movement, as they're a marked scammer.

Sale 1: Sells alongside a Wintery Wisp Taunt: Second Rate Sorcery, Strange Professional Killstreak Festive Ambassador, a Strange Professional Killstreak Festive SMG, and a Professional Killstreak Conscientious Objector for a Celestial Summit Mean Captain

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199207750538#!/compare/1750896000/1751068800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003892814#!/compare/1750550400/1751068800

Micro for the Wintery Wisp Taunt: Second Rate Sorcery:

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No in-date sales, only movements are scammer related, this sale, and a Mannco bot deposit. Taking buy orders for this micro, which can be found here: https://imgur.com/a/PD2it8P

6 keys, 16.11 ref

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Micro for the Strange Professional Killstreak Festive Ambassador

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Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/7ruapxW

Buyers at 30.41, sellers at 31.75k, taking midpoint at 31.08k for this micro.

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Micro for the Strange Professional Killstreak Festive SMG

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Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/CMhnseZ

Buyers/sellers met at 7.18 keys, taking this as the micro value.

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Micro for the Professional Killstreak Conscientious Objector

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/l4zR09r

Sellers at 5.89k, buyers are 4.69k, taking the midpoint at 5.29k for this micro.

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Mini for the Celestial Summit Mean Captain can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/68b9e841797bb4230b097df7

Taking 140 keys for this.

Shroud + 6 keys, 16.11 ref + 31.08k + 7.18k + 5.29k for 140k hat.

140k - 5.29k - 7.18k - 31.08k = 96.45 keys, .45 keys at 52.72 key price currently is 23.72 ref, so 96 keys 23.72 ref, -6 keys 16.11 ref is 90 keys, 7.61 ref

Taking 90k for this sale.

Item 8: https://backpack.tf/item/15006589501

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164814063#!/compare/1750291200/1750377600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139560938#!/compare/1750291200/1750377600

Sale 2: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139560938#!/compare/1750291200/1750377600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1750291200/1750377600

Sale 3: 94k pure

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1750896000/1751068800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198262585528#!/compare/1750982400/1751068800

Sale 4: Bulk (Thank you Blaze)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198262585528#!/compare/1757980800/1758067200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175893725#!/compare/1757980800/1758067200

Item 9 (New): https://backpack.tf/item/15037422356

Sale 1: Sold for a Revived Recharge Shadow Shroud and 70 keys (Thank you Blaze)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140316312#!/compare/1759449600/1759536000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198398628412#!/compare/1759449600/1759536000

The Revived Recharge isn't priceable, as all it's movements are untrace/bulk. This wouldn't even be a useable sale to price the RR Shroud either, as this would end up at somewhere around 110-120~, which would leave the price of it at 40-50 keys, below it's buyers. Going to micro it at 60k for it's buyers, and use it as a supportive sale here.

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/EwQsF52

New marketplace sale:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31473;5;u359

Sept 4th, sold for $279.99

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Key price for the day is $1.80

$279.99 / $1.80 = 155.55k

We reached the bottom!

Sales at 87k (new sale), 90k, 94k, 95k, 95k (new sale), 115k (new sale), 130k, 130k (new supportive sale), 131.5k, 152k, 155.55k (new sale).

Classifieds link (9/4): https://imgur.com/a/9zzU1Gx

Classifieds link (11/16): https://imgur.com/a/H9kH4yF

Buyers at 89.93k on last submission have dropped to 85.33k, and sellers at 125k have raised to 150k. Sellers exclude the sales of the old and new marketplace sales of 152k and 155.55k, and we still see mid 90's as a common trading point. Based on the sales range previously, I'm going to omit the 87k sale as a dump, and the 131.5k high end as well. New range being 90k to 130k will provide a fair balance between the volume of low sales around 90-95k, respect the midpoint of 115k we have in a recent sale and the previous price point, as well as now encompassing the previously left out 130k sale (supported by a new additional 130k supportive sale) to show the shift in the market slightly upwards as sellers have gone up.

Taking 90k for the low end and 130k for the high end.

I'm a bit confused if you have 3 sales at or around the 130 range why you choose to exclude 132. It doesn't make much of a difference in the price but there is nothing currently that should justify excluding it, I feel this should be 90-132

Only because 87 is also excluded, it's about 3 keys under and 132 is 2 keys over, so excluding both keeps the range a bit more centered on the average.

87 should be excluded because it's practically a bulk sale. If an item's value makes up less than 50% of the total trade value, it shouldn't be used - and in this case, with this many pure sales, I'd ignore it as well. Honestly after reviewing the 131.5 is a similar situation so it's probably fine.