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Nice hat
Bought for ~90 keys from STN.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071082937#!/compare/1764806400/1764892800
https://imgur.com/a/qSBkPoL
Two marketplace sales
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31000;5;u17
Nov 10th at $128.00 / $1.83 = ~70 keys
Nov 29th at $139.99 / $1.81 = ~77 keys
https://next.backpack.tf/stats?item=Hephaistos%27%20Handcraft&quality=Unusual&priceindex=17
Based on next data, sale for 77 keys was below buyers of 84 at the time. Will exclude this sale and exclude the sale of 70 in extention.
STN dump, excluding, ~68 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033505764#!/compare/1758326400/1762732800
https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Hephaistos%27%20Handcraft/Tradable/Craftable/17
https://backpack.tf/item/15473537522
One unsold for 95, only has bot movement since August, excluding.
If buy orders were filmsy I'd make a range, but considering they have been consistently high after the marketplace sales I will exclude them.
Will check for the unsold to see if anything changes but assuming its been through bots' inventories for ~3 months I think it'll remain unsold for a bit longer.
Taking 90.
Not sure about this one. There's an untraceable qsstore dump here: https://backpack.tf/item/12692074950
These are also either bot transfers, or sales followed by immediate redumps: https://backpack.tf/item/15473537522
Given the majority of the sales for this are bot dumps, 90 flat is absolutely too high here. I do get the argument of excluding the marketplace sales due to buyers at the time being higher, but that's not the case anymore. And with how frequently it seems to sell for buy order prices, a single sale at 90 is not going to cut it.
Realistically, the best we can do in this situation is go with a range of 70-90. But if you strongly feel that the marketplace sales still shouldn't be used due to buyers at the time, then this is best left outdated for the time being.
I saw buyers tanked. Classic case of bot outbidding, and I think it doesn't reflect the buyers correctly anymore. I will resuggest at 70-90 later.