Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u365

https://backpack.tf/item/15269333812

mp.tf sale on 9/25/25

$35.63 / $1.90 = 18.8

Rounding to 19

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u365

https://backpack.tf/item/15311913341

mp.tf sale on 10/04/25

$35.63 / $1.90 = 18.8

Rounding to 19

Sale #3

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u365

mp.tf sale on 10/08/25

$36.99 / $1.90 = 19.5

Rounding to 20

Sale #4

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u365

https://backpack.tf/item/16233065899

mp.tf sale on 10/25/25

$34.12 / $1.84 = 18.5

Rounding to 19

Sale #5

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u365

https://backpack.tf/item/15280708440

mp.tf sale on 10/28/25

$34.12 / $1.83 = 18.6

Rounding to 19

Sale #6

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u365

mp.tf sale on 10/28/25

$34.12 / $1.83 = 18.6

Rounding to 19

Sale #7

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31505;5;u365

mp.tf sale on 10/30/25

$34.12 / $1.88 = 18.2

Rounding to 18

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/16394044259

STN dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199454798964#!/compare/1763078400/1765756800

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/16394044259

16 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1763424000/1763596800 (ID: 16422459166)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198886324288#!/compare/1762560000/1763596800

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/16394044259

Unknown

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198319160003#!/compare/1765411200/1765497600

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/16394044259

11 keys + Showstopper Scotsmann's stagger (3.71) + Skill Gotten Gains second rate sorcery (2.34)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198319160003#!/compare/1765497600/1765670400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298497069#!/compare/1765324800/1765670400

Seller insta dumped taunts to quickbuyer (rel), taking buy orders

11 + 3.71 + 2.34 = 17.05

Rounding to 17

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/16226846176

Sold for a searing plasma hiveminder

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882175555#!/compare/1760054400/1760140800

Better used there

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/16226846176

14 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168434021#!/compare/1760054400/1760140800 (ID: 16268729555)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1760054400/1760140800

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/16226846176

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1760832000/1760918400

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/16226846176

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296104441#!/compare/1760918400/1761177600

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/16226846176

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296104441#!/compare/1761523200/1761782400

Sale #17

https://backpack.tf/item/16226846176

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102926014#!/compare/1763078400/1763164800

Sale #18

https://backpack.tf/item/16204398021

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199168795688#!/compare/1759104000/1759363200

Sale #19

https://backpack.tf/item/16204398021

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094491529#!/compare/1761350400/1761436800

Histories don't track

Sale #20

https://backpack.tf/item/16204398021

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045493149#!/compare/1761004800/1761696000

Sale #21

https://backpack.tf/item/16204398021

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142733199#!/compare/1762041600/1763164800

Sale #22

https://backpack.tf/item/16204398021

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142733199#!/compare/1762041600/1763164800

Sale #23

https://backpack.tf/item/16204398021

STN dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198281764679#!/compare/1763337600/1764115200

Sale #24

https://backpack.tf/item/16204398021

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198886324288#!/compare/1763596800/1764201600

Sale #25

https://backpack.tf/item/15913458994

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049501416#!/compare/1760227200/1764720000

Sale #26

https://backpack.tf/item/15878676883

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074605807#!/compare/1761004800/1761264000

Sale #27

https://backpack.tf/item/15878676883

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1761609600/1761696000

Sale #28

https://backpack.tf/item/15878676883

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199000109119#!/compare/1754956800/1761782400

Sale #29

https://backpack.tf/item/15565974149

15 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022407862#!/compare/1760140800/1760832000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083260088#!/compare/1760745600/1760832000

Sale #30

https://backpack.tf/item/15280708440

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216035995#!/compare/1759795200/1759881600

Sale #31

https://backpack.tf/item/15280708440

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216035995#!/compare/1760140800/1760313600

Sale #32

https://backpack.tf/item/15247959956

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072062749#!/compare/1757462400/1757980800

Sale #33

https://backpack.tf/item/15247959956

20 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199232380670#!/compare/1757980800/1758067200 (ID: 16178951276)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193667161#!/compare/1747526400/1758326400

Sale #34

https://backpack.tf/item/15245302018

14 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198247640596#!/compare/1757980800/1758067200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1757980800/1758067200

Histories track

Sale #35

https://backpack.tf/item/15245302018

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115395320#!/compare/1763596800/1765324800

Sale #36

https://backpack.tf/item/15245302018

16 keys 30.33 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115395320#!/compare/1765497600/1765670400 (ID: 16511931672)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203332862#!/compare/1765670400/1765756800

Rounding to 16

Sale #37

https://backpack.tf/item/15238299629

Cashout

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046061905#!/compare/1758153600/1758240000

Glad.tf sales:

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Crystal%20Crown%20Crimbo%20Cap&at=2025-12-15T02:53:23.917Z

~18 keys

~16 keys (2x)

~15 keys (4x)

Current sellers:

$36.66 on mp.tf (2x)

$39.99 on mp.tf (2x)

$38.03 on SCM

18 keys on bp.tf (3x)

18.11 keys on bp.tf

20 keys on bp.tf

17 keys 7.22 ref on STN

Sales: 19, 19, 20, 19, 19, 19, 18, 16, 17, 14, 15, 20, 14, 16

Despite the current STN seller at ~17, I feel fine taking the 18 key sellers due to the price fluctuating with time and plethora of higher sales. Buy orders are at 16.5 currently, but I will include 16 in order to give a good range and balance out the lower excluded sales.

Final price: 16 - 19