Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30767;5;u373

https://backpack.tf/item/16004182917

mp.tf sale on 11/03/25

$16.20 / $1.87 = 8.66

Rounding to 8.5

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30767;5;u373

mp.tf sale on 11/18/25

$16.20 / $1.81 = 8.95

Rounding to 9

Sale #3

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30767;5;u373

https://backpack.tf/item/16027551059

mp.tf sale on 11/30/25

$14.40 / $1.81 = 7.96

Rounding to 8

Sale #4

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30767;5;u373

mp.tf sale on 12/01/25

$16.99 / $1.81 = 9.39

Rounding to 9.5

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/item/16156320715

7 keys 10.33 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199365923356#!/compare/1765411200/1765497600 (ID: 16503187182)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199112522018#!/compare/1765411200/1765497600

Rounding to 7

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/16130031320

7 keys 6.44 ref

Confirmed by glad.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Drunkard%20Airdog&at=2025-12-19T17:11:19.437Z

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198444049501#!/compare/1758412800/1761177600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004803157#!/compare/1761091200/1761177600

Rounding to 7

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/16109412882

unknown quicksell.store dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199375570786#!/compare/1761523200/1765497600

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/16107630183

huge dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084753472#!/compare/1758499200/1758844800

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/16027551059

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199033203097#!/compare/1761264000/1761350400

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/15986558787

7 keys 46 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198390147056#!/compare/1759017600/1759276800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057689222#!/compare/1758931200/1759017600

Keys are ~65 ref right now, so this would round down

Rounding to 7.5

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/15966313068

7 keys 6.77 ref

Confirmed by glad.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Drunkard%20Airdog&at=2025-12-19T17:11:19.437Z

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198814484691#!/compare/1762214400/1762732800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132665029#!/compare/1762128000/1762214400

Rounding to 7

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/15966313068

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132665029#!/compare/1763078400/1763164800

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/15965954396

7 keys 6.44 ref

Confirmed by glad.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Drunkard%20Airdog&at=2025-12-19T17:11:19.437Z

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084568909#!/compare/1762560000/1762646400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199199352041#!/compare/1762473600/1762560000

Rounding to 7

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/15965954396

?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199199352041#!/compare/1763856000/1764028800

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/15965954396

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199199531944#!/compare/1764201600/1765843200

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/16187836535

7 keys 5.11 ref

Confirmed by glad.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Drunkard%20Airdog&at=2025-12-19T17:11:19.437Z

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048633942#!/compare/1758240000/1758326400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101508611#!/compare/1758240000/1758326400

Rounding to 7

Current sellers:

$16.20 on mp.tf (2x)

$17.99 on mp.tf

$23.76 on mp.tf

$82.15 on SCM

8 keys on bp.tf (3x)

8.11 keys on bp.tf

9 keys on bp.tf (2x)

Sales: 8.5, 9, 8, 9.5, 7, 7, 7.5, 7, 7, 7

Despite buy orders being at 7.18 currently, there are numerous sales at 7 (5+ traced). It would round down to 7 anyways. It makes sense to include it as the low end of the range. Multiple sellers at 8 keys, with two of them being 3+ weeks unsold, indicates that everything above is a high outlier.

Final price: 7 - 8