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Sale #1
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31422;5;u320
https://backpack.tf/item/14624789101
mp.tf sale on 9/30/25
$119.99 / $1.90 = 63.2
Rounding to 63
Sale #2
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31422;5;u320
mp.tf sale on 10/02/25
$119.99 / $1.90 = 63.2
Rounding to 63
Sale #3
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31422;5;u320
mp.tf sale on 11/11/25
$119.99 / $1.80 = 66.7
Rounding to 67
Sale #4
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31422;5;u320
mp.tf sale on 11/22/25
$119.99 / $1.81 = 66.3
Rounding to 66
Sale #5
https://backpack.tf/item/16188584191
31 keys 40.11 ref
Confirmed by glad.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Prettiest%20Star%20Nightcap&at=2025-12-20T17:56:51.906Z
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198332850708#!/compare/1758931200/1759017600
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389037870#!/compare/1759017600/1759104000
Rounding to 32
Sale #6
https://backpack.tf/item/16188584191
39 keys
Confirmed by glad.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Prettiest%20Star%20Nightcap&at=2025-12-20T17:56:51.906Z
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389037870#!/compare/1759104000/1759276800
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1758931200/1759104000
Sale #7
https://backpack.tf/item/14089059576
Sold for a Blizzardy Storm Brain Bucket (in date at 25) + Circling TF Logo Boston Brain Bucket (no usable sales, buyers at 10.57) + 5 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882175555#!/compare/1758758400/1758844800 (ID: 16212575836)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155489173#!/compare/1758844800/1758931200
25 + 10.57 + 5 = 40.57
Rounding to 41
Sale #8
https://backpack.tf/item/14089059576
34 keys 29.77 ref
Confirmed by glad.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Prettiest%20Star%20Nightcap&at=2025-12-20T17:56:51.906Z
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155489173#!/compare/1760313600/1760400000 (ID: 16289177869)
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199235704407#!/compare/1760313600/1760400000
Rounding to 34
Sale #9
https://backpack.tf/item/14089059576
?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038387033#!/compare/1762128000/1763510400
Current sellers:
$119.99 on mp.tf
$117.00 on SCM
45 keys on bp.tf
Sales: 63, 63, 67, 66, 32, 39, 41, 34
All sales above 45 are countered by 7+ month unsold. Will ignore the lowest sale to balance them out.
Final price: 34 - 41
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102462417#!/compare/1765843200/1766016000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1765929600/1766016000
https://backpack.tf/item/13969837983
Sold to STN for at least 27 keys + some metal. Probably more, as they bought something later that day.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1766102400/1766188800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102644284#!/compare/1739923200/1768608000
https://backpack.tf/item/13969837983
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1769731200/1769817600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082470182#!/compare/1769731200/1769817600
https://backpack.tf/item/14638416389
45 keys (hat was painted so IDs don't match)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199405785454#!/compare/1768608000/1768694400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198405497731#!/compare/1767484800/1768694400
https://backpack.tf/item/16188584191
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198405497731#!/compare/1768694400/1769644800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1768867200/1768953600
https://backpack.tf/item/16188584191
Untraceable
https://i.imgur.com/DKjPUti.png - seller at 50 keys (or $119.99 on marketplace)
https://backpack.tf/item/13920410586
Buyers up to 38 keys. Dunno if it's worth including the marketplace sales yet, but both the low-end and high-end are gonna be too low now.
I agree. 34 was already looking low before these sales given the combination of current buyers and the 4(!) sales above 50 keys that were excluded completely.
39-45 will be fine here.