Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/16488043462

Sale 1: Untrace, same day move as unbox

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198835887996#!/compare/1765324800/1765411200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048792033#!/compare/1765324800/1765411200

Sale 2: $100 SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048792033#!/compare/1765324800/1765411200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123789684#!/compare/1765324800/1765497600

It's not shown entering/leaving either Hammy/Meme's inventory, but the time Anx get it's lines up with the only SCM sale in that period, enters untradeable, and is put up on Marketplace 1 week after entering, so this is pretty solid confirmation

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20A%20Hat%20to%20Kill%20For

Sale is $100 on Dec 11th, 11am

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key

Key price at the time is $2.16

$100 / $2.16 = 46.3k

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/iib1IuZ

No buy orders exist for the effect/hat combo, including on STN at the time of making this.

One sale at 46.3k, rounding this to 46k and taking that for the sole value.