Suggestion: Orbiting Fire Pyromancer's Mask at 360 keys

Price Suggestion

~375 keys

o.fire

48 votes up

1 vote down

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This suggestion was closed Sat, 14 Feb 26 22:19:42 +0000 by the submitter.

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Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/316;5;u33

mp.tf sale on 11/21/25

$699.99 / $1.81 = 386.7

Rounding to 387

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/item/1778671505

Sold for a g.fetti pyromancer's mask (in date at 265) + crystal crown dapper noel (active suggestion at 39) + spectral escort mannrobics (49) + delightful star scorchers solo (no usable sales, buyers at 4.62) + carioca's call hot wheeler (no usable sales, buyers at 3.54)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1760745600/1760832000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064326979#!/compare/1760659200/1761004800

265 + 39 + 49 + 4.62 + 3.54 = 361.16

Rounding to 360

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Spectral Escort Mannrobics mini

Sold for a Isotope Pacific Peacemaker Scattergun (Field-Tested) (no mini, STN buys at 22 keys 5.77 ref) + Lost Signal Taunt: Square Dance (mini at 21) + Lost Signal Taunt: The Killer Solo (untraceable, glad.tf at 8 keys https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Lost%20Signal%20Taunt:%20The%20Killer%20Solo&at=2025-12-28T21:48:34.537Z)

22 + 21 + 8 = 49

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Lost Signal Taunt: Square Dance mini

https://backpack.tf/item/16018215950

21 keys

Confirmed by glad.tf: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Lost%20Signal%20Taunt:%20Square%20Dance&at=2025-12-28T21:43:14.720Z

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073818313#!/compare/1761436800/1761523200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1761436800/1761523200

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Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/item/1274575819

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198852631417#!/compare/1762041600/1762214400

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/item/1274575819

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174744465#!/compare/1763596800/1763683200

Current sellers:

375 keys on bp.tf

450 keys on bp.tf (spelled)

Sales: 387, 360

387 is capped by current seller. Was item overpay anyways

Final price: 360

Sales are not capped at current sellers. They are only ever capped at their own buyouts. They could be excluded due to lower sellers, but with how close these two are together, I think you can simply use both in the range.

I really think with two unsolds at 375, one being 1+ month old, that the 387 key sale is an outlier. It was item overpay anyways. If you insist I can resuggest with a range, but I do want to ask first because usually other price mods would tell me to go with 360 flat here.

It is definitely a valid suggestion to do so. A couple of specific things I want to point out pertaining to this particular case (or to terminology used, for future reference):

- "capping at a current seller" implies you include the sale, but at the value of current sellers. If you think the sale is an outlier based on sellers, you exclude it as an outlier (which is a fair option in this case)

- The sale was not item overpay, it was a MP sale

- Your low end sale is based partially on buyers. That sale is likely slightly higher than portrayed here in reality. While this is doable with the values here, it does mean that its value would be understated.

Personally, I think with sales this close together, where one is probably slightly too high and one is probably slightly too low, taking both and giving it the range is a fair solution. The average remains under the sellers we see, and its a drop compared to the previous value. This means we're not raising based on sales above current sellers, or suggesting an average that is higher than current sellers imply.

I'll run this past the other mods. I'm not strongly opposed to 360 flat either (its a ~3% difference which is well within our margin of error anyway), but would favor the range here.

New sale

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1769385600/1769472000 - Near ID: 16663441861

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098377880#!/compare/1769299200/1769472000

https://backpack.tf/item/3383037695

360 keys

As a sidenote, the ~360 item sale is an STN sale, and if I'm not mistaken, STN's "sell" pricing will be retained until they get another of the same item. Only exception I believe is if their "buy" price exceeds the sell price. This most likely won't be sufficient proof of a B/O, but it's worth noting.

https://i.imgur.com/dGPDSGN.png - Assuming it hasn't changed, their B/O would've been ~371.

Also, some other items on the buyer's end on the ~360 item sale also appear to have been involved, being split between different STN bots. Items include:

Killer Solo (~1.5)

Square Dance (~1.5)

Festivizer (~0.8)

Flying Guillotine Kit (~0.7)

a key (~1)

Pro. KS Vaccinator Fabricator (~1.8)

+ a bunch of other cheaper cosmetics.

All of this added up should get the sale to round to 370

There's also a Vintage Lugermorph that leaves their inventory which, while it doesn't seem to have gone directly to any STN bots, may have contributed to the cost. Given STN would normally value offered items at their buy prices, I wouldn't be surprised if the lugermorph (and maybe other items) were involved.

Regardless, with a pure sale at 360, and one less seller lower than the marketplace sale, I reckon 360-387 (or 390) would be fine here.

Thank you for all your good work! Are you gunning for a price mod position? 👀

i'm just clearing the backlog, trying to get the oldest suggestions to be from this year. don't think i'm active enough for price mod.

I checked in with the other mods as well, they agree with a range 360-387 (or 360-390 if rounded).