Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/16268572499

Sale 1: Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198870237857#!/compare/1760140800/1760227200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1760140800/1760227200

Rest of movements are bot shuffling.

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/16257793649

Sale 1: Incomplete, 31 keys incoming from the buyer after dumping 2 unusuals, but total amount is below buyers

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182016589#!/compare/1760054400/1760140800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198898142735#!/compare/1760054400/1760140800

Sale 2: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198898142735#!/compare/1765670400/1766102400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1766016000/1766102400

Sale 3: 1:1'd for a Haunted Ghosts Cotton Head

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1767052800/1767139200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211787125#!/compare/1752364800/1767225600

From a quick search, it has considerably less movement, probably better used to price the Cotton Head.

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/16111721401

Sale 1: Untrace STN pickup

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1762732800/1762819200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050412790#!/compare/1762300800/1764201600

Sale 2: Redumped to STN

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050412790#!/compare/1765324800/1765497600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1765411200/1765497600

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/14291119573

Sale 1: 49k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1766620800/1766707200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199438900919#!/compare/1766620800/1766880000

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/14130235421

Sale 1: Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159783922#!/compare/1759795200/1762214400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199697483558#!/compare/1761955200/1762128000

Rest of movements are bot shuffling.

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/9130089388

Sale 1: Sold for a Blizzardy Storm Twisted Topper, a Miami Nights Brim-Full of Bullets, and a Malevolent Monoculi More Gun Marshal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199180257193#!/compare/1766707200/1766793600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056793444#!/compare/1766361600/1766793600

Seeing as the combined buy orders of these 3 hats are 60~ keys, going to take whatever the value of this item overpay would be and cap it at Arx's buyout of 50, as the buyer could've just dumped these and saved themselves 10 keys lol

Snapshot permalink with Arx's buyout: https://imgur.com/a/6NGy4TK

Classified links of all traded hats: https://imgur.com/a/Aozi6Km

Item 7: https://backpack.tf/item/6685680623

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026938308#!/compare/1757980800/1764892800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040965652#!/compare/1764806400/1764892800

Sale 2: Untrace, but given that it was next day (and the sheer amount of simple key bundles incoming), it was highly likely a buy order dump (especially with the amount of incoming keys at 45~, could have been any, but no outgoing from seller and no shared histories I could find), and the only incoming key bundle above buyers is 50, which also shares no history but wouldn't disrupt our range anyways, still excluding regardless

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040965652#!/compare/1764892800/1764979200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972848111#!/compare/1752364800/1765411200

Marketplace sale:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/920;5;u36

Sold for $119.99 on Dec. 11th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Key price for the day is $1.80

$119.99 / $1.80 = 66.66k

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/mxctswZ

Sales at 49k, 50k, 66.66k. Disregarding the Marketplace sale as a comical outlier, especially given current market. The recency of the 48.5k~ listing doesn't discredit our sales at 49-50k, this just seems to be the most common trading point for it at this time. Taking 49k for the low end and 50k for the high end.