Item 1 (Duped): https://backpack.tf/item/227794245

Doesn't seem to be any genuine movements, just dupes.

Item 2 (Duped): https://backpack.tf/item/298707251

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202278248#!/compare/1756944000/1757548800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192088525#!/compare/1757462400/1757548800

Merendas seems to sell it, but can't tell where it went, Mike is another dupe owner, as is Teddy.

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/225850568

Sale 1: Untrace, no keys connect between Erik/Piu Piu, many are plausible between Riv, but there are several bundles that share the same history which could also be in the ballpark of the items obtained. LPP is not bulk here speculatively, given the value of other items obtained, and near ID searches don't help isolate which amount of keys were involved.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141187659#!/compare/1757116800/1757203200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1757116800/1757203200

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/708500534

Sale 1: Presumably the marketplace sale listed below

Sale 2: Sold for an Eldritch Rift Taunt: Luxury Lounge, an Aurora Skies Hot Spaniel, a Vivid Plasma Modest Metal Pile of Scrap, a Miami Nights Firewall Helmet, a Green Confetti Antarctic Eyewear, and a Holy Grail Taunt: The Shred Alert

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1759536000/1759622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070774923#!/compare/1759536000/1759622400

Eldritch Rift Taunt: Luxury Lounge is in-date at 71.5 keys.

Aurora Skies Hot Spaniel is in-date at 23.5 keys.

Green Confetti Antarctic Eyewear is in-date at 18 keys.

Vivid Plasma Modest Metal Pile of Scrap isn't priceable, only two untrace movements and no sales on Marketplace, microing at buyers of 10.27k. This would be supported by the fact schererman resold this to (presumably) a buy order for 10 keys and 2 refined about a week and a half after the initial transaction, and doesn't change our rounding to 10 keys either. Compares included below alongside the classifieds link.

Compares:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070774923#!/compare/1760313600/1760400000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199538198279#!/compare/1760313600/1760400000

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/0MFfrpM

Miami Nights Firewall Helmet is in-date at 20.5 keys.

For the Holy Grail Taunt: The Shred Alert, it's being micro'd at what it was resold for as well:

https://backpack.tf/item/9313651099

Was sold to Komi in this compare:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070774923#!/compare/1760918400/1761091200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1761004800/1761091200

You can see 7 keys and a bunch of ref go outbound to Philbert bot (matching where the taunt came in for the day), and see that on the seller's side, he got a Batsaber from Philbert bot the same day. Additionally, I attached Next snapshots of the buy order Komi had placed, which lines up with we see outgoing to the bot, which is 7.9 keys, so microing this at that value, backed up by the snapshots and outgoing with a shared history to seller's pickups.

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Shred%20Alert/68f82293abd5e971b3090268

Snapshot permalink: https://imgur.com/u0AaEUd

Total for Sale 2: 71.5 + 23.5 + 18 + 10 + 20.5 + 7.9 = 151.4 keys

Sale 3: Sold alongside a Smoking Desert Marauder and a Skill Gotten Gains Schadenfreude for 135k, a Steaming Crone's Dome, and an Australium Rocket Launcher

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198898142735#!/compare/1765670400/1766102400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1766016000/1766102400

Smoking Desert Marauder is in-date at 30 keys.

Schadenfreude was used in bulk the following day, so microing this at buyers of 12.43 keys: https://imgur.com/a/xMrkwMr

Steaming Crone's Dome open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/695822397af6d8bf8706e681

Taking 49.5 keys.

Quick micro for the Aussie RL:

-----

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Strange%20Australium%20Rocket%20Launcher&at=2026-01-02T19:55:44.016Z

9 sold

Past 7 days

1 @ 43 keys 39.11 ref

1 @ 43 keys 5.88 ref

1 @ 43 keys 5.77 ref

1 @ 43 keys

1 @ 42 keys 59.66 ref

Past 30 days

1 @ 47 keys

1 @ 46 keys 55.88 ref

1 @ 46 keys 55.22 ref

1 @ 44 keys 30 ref

1 @ 43 keys 39.11 ref

1 @ 43 keys 5.88 ref

1 @ 43 keys 5.77 ref

1 @ 43 keys

1 @ 42 keys 59.66 ref

25 bought

Past 7 days

1 @ 41 keys 22 ref

Past 30 days

4 @ 43 keys 44.44 ref

2 @ 43 keys 42.66 ref

2 @ 43 keys 9.77 ref

2 @ 43 keys 7.33 ref

2 @ 43 keys 6.77 ref

2 @ 43 keys 2.77 ref

4 @ 42 keys 48.22 ref

2 @ 42 keys 43.44 ref

4 @ 42 keys 1.77 ref

8 @ 42 keys 1.66 ref

4 @ 42 keys 1.55 ref

2 @ 42 keys 1 ref

8 @ 42 keys 0.11 ref

2 @ 42 keys

2 @ 41 keys 22 ref

Range seems to change a bit at least recently, showing the snapshots from around the time of this trade (12/18 > 12/19)

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Strange%20Australium%20Rocket%20Launcher/69444127056182e71a0c34b0

Snapshot perma-link: https://imgur.com/a/34zyPaC

Majority of the bought are super low, sales are 4 high and 5 low with the low ones all being within the last week, time of sale had sellers at 45k and buyers at 43.12k, so taking a midpoint at 44k~ here to represent the few higher sales earlier in the month but still show it's downward trend towards end of Dec.

-----

Total for Sale 3: 135 + 49.5 + 44 - 30 - 12.43 = 186.07

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/1324053218

Sale 1: TGP auction, presumably this is the 116 key bundle, but given how low it is comparatively to other sales (and being below buyers, and neither party knowing the exact amount other than it was close to buy orders 4 months~ ago), excluding this. Chat with both buyer/seller linked below.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198860735519#!/compare/1757116800/1757203200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088995056#!/compare/1757116800/1757203200

Chat with buyer/seller: https://imgur.com/a/TTcUs85

Sale 2: Sold for a Delightful Doves Shadow Shroud and 85 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088995056#!/compare/1758326400/1758412800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084205929#!/compare/1758326400/1758412800

Shroud is in-date at 110 keys, giving us 195 keys for Sale 2.

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/273798815

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083063978#!/compare/1759363200/1764979200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1764892800/1764979200

Marketplace sale:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/337;5;u11

Sold for $349.99 Sept 13th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Key price for the day is $1.82

$349.99 / $1.82 = 192.3k

Classifieds link (11/16): https://imgur.com/a/VKKdRaZ

Classifieds link (1/2): https://imgur.com/a/v1tGsb5

Sales at 151.4k, 186.07k, 192.3k, 195k. Disregarding the sale at 151.4k as an outlier and a redump at a loss. No sales excluded by buy/sell orders. Rounding the 186.07k down to 185k for some leeway in the micros of items subtracted, as well as open suggestion and micro of the Aussie RL.

Taking 185k for the low end and 195k for the high end.