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No item movements, but a marketplace sale!
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31441;5;u3174
Sale on Jan 3rd for $229.99
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
Key price for the day is $1.85
$229.99 / $1.85 = 124.32k
Only buyers are at 28.13k~, no sellers at this time.
Rounding our sale down to 124k, and taking this for the sole value.
https://backpack.tf/item/16584261985
Sales here
Well at least I know that same day movement is why I couldn't find the item that sold on Marketplace, thank you!
First movement is just the dump to STN, second movement being so fast means it's untrace on both sides (no inbound keys from Juroff and outbounds have no history), but I have a screenshot from Discord where it looks like he said he paid 55 keys and it sold in 2h~. Posting it for context for mods: https://imgur.com/a/g0EsHeB
Given that it looks Juroff paid 55 keys for it, and it resold for 124k within such a short timeframe, I think it's simple enough to write that off as a quicksell. Also took a screenshot of the STN page just in case the price changes in the future: https://imgur.com/a/YRa86ib
Tough call, was on STN for a couple of hours and as I remembered the price was lowered from around 80 to 55 before juroff bought it.
Well it being lowered would at the very least support it being a quicksale, would be better to wait on mod input for where to go with this then.
It being lowered also makes me feel like this is an outlier since nobody picked this up when it was lesser the price it had on STN. But I don't have screenshot proof so I can't back up that it was more.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039843013#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400
Dumped to STN for ~42 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1767398400/1767484800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310750043#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400
28 keys match but as you guys said it was probably 55 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310750043#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128448726#!/compare/1766534400/1768435200
Untrace
Even though these 2 sales happened quickly, it stil indicates that 124 keys is most likely high given that it means using the highest sale out of 3 sales with it being more than double the next sale down. I'll let the mods give their opinion too but in this situation I'd wait for more sales
Haven't had any mod input as of yet for a hot minute, unless the movements at 42/55~ are considered excluded due to nature of sales to take a single 124k, then I would just close this, as buyers exclude 42 w/ current at 50k, I didn't include a classifieds link originally so at current market we would include 55k, but without a third sale it would just be unpriceable, as 42k being a dump doesn't support the low-end sale, and the speed of resale supports high end, so it would need third sale to break that stalemate.
Sorry for the delay. It would be best to wait for another sale to determine the outlier since 124 selling so quickly could've also been a lucky sale after the dump to and purchase from STN were similarly quick and for far less.
Yeah, these are out of date at this point anyways and there's no new sales to go off of, will close this.