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Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/16369968076
Sale 1: 22k
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258249698#!/compare/1762819200/1764374400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139190264#!/compare/1764201600/1764374400
Further movements didn't have any valid sales, and given the nature of moving back and forth between sp's bot, it seems weird for Jotaro to buy this, dump it, rebuy it, and then go and list it on MannCo. No other usable movements aside, excluding the first based on the nature of what seems like a redump.
Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/16266077524
Sale 1: Untrace, 53k outgoing on seller side, 30k go to M@ster for the Firearm Protector, 3rd compare shows that
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199482962726#!/compare/1766966400/1767052800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199275811882#!/compare/1767052800/1767312000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968608003#!/compare/1767139200/1767225600
Despite this looking like 23 keys, the other 23k don't go to Keys' inventory, they go to Will3035, seen here:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258168272#!/compare/1767139200/1767312000
While this looks like it might be a 23k sale, seeing as the keys go to a different inventory (with no shared/intermediary items), hard to say what's going on here, would exclude this for now
Gets moved to Marketplace after, this is the one currently listed there not showing on search
Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/16330633266
Sale 1: Untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310750043#!/compare/1761523200/1761609600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128699385#!/compare/1761523200/1761609600
Sale 2: Marketplace sale
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31309;5;u382
Sold for $54.99 on Dec. 26th
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
Prices spike enough to change rounding, so using weekly key average
Key prices for the week:
Dec. 23rd, $1.83
Dec. 24th/29th, $1.85
Dec. 25th, $1.87
Dec. 27th/28th, $1.88
Dec. 26th, $1.89
Weekly key average = $1.86
$54.99 / $1.864 = 29.56k
Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/QxkmFdF
One valid sale at 29.56k, and two sales at 22k and 23k with some questionable circumstances. Given the redump/sharing on Item 1 and being unable to trace Item 2's sale fully, going to leave this at 29.56k rounded up to 30k for the sole value.
In Item 2, Sale 1, it should be safe to assume that sale's going to be 23 keys, given process of elimination on the buyer's side. if there's any doubt, keys from the "Will3035" account appear on the seller's side too. It's not the full 23 keys, but it should be enough evidence that the 23 keys were involved here.
As for Item 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139190264#!/compare/1764374400/1764806400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199124965533#!/compare/1764374400/1764460800
This is the trade after the 22 key purchase. It involves the Candle Flame Horror Shawl, so it wasn't a bot dump, as evident by the fact that it doesn't appear as a gladiator.tf purchase despite it selling to a gladiator.tf bot.
Regardless, even if it was dumped to a bot, I am of the opinion that this sale should still be included here. The point of excluding sales that dumped to bots for less is that these sales tend to be too high, and are usually dumped as the buyers realise they're likely not going to break even. This isn't the case here as it is lower than the sale at 30.
Another minor thing is the fact that you're using an average price on the marketplace sale when it's arguably not necessary here. It could just be a matter of opinion and maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think this is necessary specifically here, as the key price didn't vary very significantly here.
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/6033-rules-for-unusual-price-suggestions/page/2/#findComment-713652
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199275811882#!/compare/1769385600/1769472000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1769299200/1769385600
https://backpack.tf/item/16369968076
Only new sale appears to be bulk
Would recommend re-suggesting for the low-end at the least.
I mean I'm pretty certain that the sale was 23k, but I got no response from them and wanted to wait on mod input to see if they would accept a plausible 23 despite it being untraceable. I think the keys with Will linking are sufficient evidence though.
I think both the low sales were a little questionable on the fence, but including 22k as the low end with the 23k being supportive (especially since we don't know if it was more than 23k, but 23k as a minimum) would be fair here.
Average key price did change the rounding as opposed to the day value, there was a little bit of variance but it's only the difference between 29/30, but the additional effort is fine to offset the high price on the day of sale and ensure it's a bit more accurate.
I think a resugg at 22-30 is fine here.