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~21 keys
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Unusual Firearm Protector Haunted Forever!
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Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/16418358795


Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075086238#!/compare/1766016000/1766102400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078864424#!/compare/1765584000/1766102400


Sale 2: Bot dump for 12k 5r

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199186541168#!/compare/1766275200/1766361600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078864424#!/compare/1766102400/1766361600


Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/12202638659


Sale 1: Untrace, not seen entering buyer's BP, keys don't match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198221078288#!/compare/1761696000/1761782400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012503085#!/compare/1761696000/1761782400


Sale 2: Untrace, not seen exiting seller's BP, no incoming keys from buyer

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1761696000/1761782400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012503085#!/compare/1761782400/1761868800


Sale 3: 17k, 15r (ID: 16541548700)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1766275200/1766361600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013121180#!/compare/1765929600/1766361600

Matching key: https://backpack.tf/item/15954005801


Sale 4: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199802101302#!/compare/1767657600/1767744000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013121180#!/compare/1767657600/1767744000


Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/12199020904


Sale 1: Marketplace sale (Presumably the Dec. 11th one, based on dates)


Presumably dumped to an STN bot after this, but due to the massive date mismatch, impossible to tell when this occurred or the nature of the movement, since the person seems to have nothing in their inventory when I checked.


Marketplace sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31310;5;u261

Sold for $45 on Dec 11th and Dec 31st

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Key prices are $1.80 for Dec. 11th and $1.85 for Dec 31st

Dec. 11th: $45 / $1.80 = 25k

Dec. 31st: $45 / $1.85 = 24.32k


Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/eOwsv9M


Sales at 17k 15r, 24.32k, and 25k. Two unsolds for one month each at 23k excludes the two marketplace sales, leaving us with the 17k 15r sale for the single value. Rounding off the ref and taking 17k for the sole value.

    with buyers at 18, this will be too harsh.

      Bots were at 14.5k on 1/18 when I made this, they were actually going down and bottomed out at 12 keys before Komi/Cheese randomly put two up at 18k yesterday.

      https://imgur.com/a/EDwISX3

        I would at least include the other sales. There are indications the high end is slightly too high, and indications that the low end is slightly too low. that will balance each other out, and since everything is below current, it will be a good conservative drop