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Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/16418358795
Sale 1: Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075086238#!/compare/1766016000/1766102400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078864424#!/compare/1765584000/1766102400
Sale 2: Bot dump for 12k 5r
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199186541168#!/compare/1766275200/1766361600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078864424#!/compare/1766102400/1766361600
Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/12202638659
Sale 1: Untrace, not seen entering buyer's BP, keys don't match
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198221078288#!/compare/1761696000/1761782400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012503085#!/compare/1761696000/1761782400
Sale 2: Untrace, not seen exiting seller's BP, no incoming keys from buyer
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1761696000/1761782400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012503085#!/compare/1761782400/1761868800
Sale 3: 17k, 15r (ID: 16541548700)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1766275200/1766361600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013121180#!/compare/1765929600/1766361600
Matching key: https://backpack.tf/item/15954005801
Sale 4: Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199802101302#!/compare/1767657600/1767744000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013121180#!/compare/1767657600/1767744000
Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/12199020904
Sale 1: Marketplace sale (Presumably the Dec. 11th one, based on dates)
Presumably dumped to an STN bot after this, but due to the massive date mismatch, impossible to tell when this occurred or the nature of the movement, since the person seems to have nothing in their inventory when I checked.
Marketplace sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31310;5;u261
Sold for $45 on Dec 11th and Dec 31st
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
Key prices are $1.80 for Dec. 11th and $1.85 for Dec 31st
Dec. 11th: $45 / $1.80 = 25k
Dec. 31st: $45 / $1.85 = 24.32k
Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/eOwsv9M
Sales at 17k 15r, 24.32k, and 25k. Two unsolds for one month each at 23k excludes the two marketplace sales, leaving us with the 17k 15r sale for the single value. Rounding off the ref and taking 17k for the sole value.
with buyers at 18, this will be too harsh.
Bots were at 14.5k on 1/18 when I made this, they were actually going down and bottomed out at 12 keys before Komi/Cheese randomly put two up at 18k yesterday.
https://imgur.com/a/EDwISX3
I would at least include the other sales. There are indications the high end is slightly too high, and indications that the low end is slightly too low. that will balance each other out, and since everything is below current, it will be a good conservative drop
Fair enough