Well this isn't nearly as funny as the 650 one, but oh well.

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/16000418404

Sale 1: Sold for a Ominous Night Taunt: Conga and 200 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198374372244#!/compare/1761004800/1761177600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175905570#!/compare/1761091200/1761177600

Convo with buyer (Conga seller): https://imgur.com/a/uA5FIm4

13 incoming match, 206 outgoing, based on convo with seller, I got proof of up to 177 in a screenshot, so I think that + outgoing is sufficient evidence of added keys.

As for the Ominous Night Conga, his redump of it 2d later is untrace, so I have snapshots from the buyers as far back as 1 month ago:

https://imgur.com/a/hXNJnTk

It's not a STRETCH to say that buyers were likely 99-100k~ like Ichi said at the time, but without proper evidence, can't really just throw that in, so pricing it at the highest buyer close to the time of sale visible by snapshots, which is 75k.

Micro'd Conga 75k + 200k in adds = 275k for Sale 1

Sale 2: Untrace (Thank you Bentry)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175905570#!/compare/1768953600/1769040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100048802#!/compare/1768867200/1769126400

Reached out to Ichi in regards to this movement, no response, will update if needed

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/16024404760

Unusualified by R

Sale 1: Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128699385#!/compare/1762473600/1762646400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1762473600/1762560000

Sale 2: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1762560000/1762819200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197985538782#!/compare/1762473600/1762732800

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/16036018497

Sale 1: Untrace, could be the 240k, but given it's sold to a bot after would likely be excluded regardless

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109596730#!/compare/1762560000/1762646400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199097345869#!/compare/1749168000/1762992000

Sale 2: Bulk/dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199097345869#!/compare/1767744000/1767830400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1767744000/1767830400

Sale 3: 120k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1767744000/1767830400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049215945#!/compare/1767744000/1767830400

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/16056225979

Sale 1: Unknown pickup, no sale from MCS, no unusualifier used

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097966169#!/compare/1761350400/1761436800

Sale 2: 210k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097966169#!/compare/1761955200/1762128000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261223846#!/compare/1761868800/1762128000

Sale 3: 1:1'd for a Galactic Connection Taunt: Rock, Paper, Scissors, also The Cat's Pajamas included

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261223846#!/compare/1768089600/1768262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872222015#!/compare/1768089600/1768176000

Given that buyers for the Flying Colors are higher than the unsolds for the RPS, writing off as: "lol" and excluding as below buyers

Sale 4: Looked like bulk originally given how much was dumped, but I think this was just max liquidation to get the Stag Lid, so untrace, can't see incoming keys as they were likely used for the Legendary Lid

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872222015#!/compare/1768262400/1768348800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1768089600/1768262400

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/16155077448

Sale 1: Sold for a Moth Plague Cranial Cowl, a Cuban Smoke Oktoberfester, and a Phantasmal Fog Taunt: Flying Colors

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123789684#!/compare/1761091200/1761177600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191137318#!/compare/1761091200/1761177600

Moth Plague Cranial Cowl open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/69698215ba61cc5b7600edff

Taking 181.5k

Phantasmal Fog Taunt: Flying Colors is in-date at 82.5k.

Cuban Smoke Oktoberfester's only movements in-date are bulk and this sale, so microing at buyers:

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/tftHXMJ

Taking 40k.

Total for Sale 1: 181.5 + 82.5 + 40 = 304

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/16159646651

Sale 1: Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198217456515#!/compare/1761091200/1761177600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192607141#!/compare/1761091200/1761177600

Sale 2: 271k, keys come from videogames2003, who bought Estel's Arcana Modest Metal Pile of Scrap the same day

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192607141#!/compare/1761177600/1761264000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1761177600/1761264000

https://backpack.tf/item/2051619113

MCS sale but disregarded here for pricing.

Item 7: https://backpack.tf/item/16318357482

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198442140110#!/compare/1761523200/1761609600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961465738#!/compare/1761523200/1761609600

Sale 2: Untrace, possibly gifted, moves same day w/ nothing exchanged

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197979060308#!/compare/1761609600/1761523200

Item 8: https://backpack.tf/item/16287087510

Sale 1: 245k (Thank you Bentry)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142235454#!/compare/1769212800/1769472000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146531955#!/compare/1769385600/1769558400

Classifieds link (1/15): https://imgur.com/a/uUbKpBx

Classifieds link (2/3): https://imgur.com/a/doXlBwT

Sales at 120, 210, new sale at 245, 271, 275, and 304. Excluding 120k as below buyers, 210k feels like an outlier considering the other sales being close knit, so excluding that as well. Taking our new sale at 245k for the low end and 304k for the high end, giving us a midpoint just below 275 by our median sales.