Suggestion: Green Black Hole Exquisite Rack at 3150–4150 keys

Price Suggestion

~3525 keys

50 votes up

5 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Mon, 20 Apr 26 13:35:09 +0000 by the submitter.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

I hope r0b and Shocked enjoy another W in the book of robo enjoyers, the 500 minis of doom and despair will not stop me from breaking this rack's dry streak

Updates for a correction to Item 1 Sale 1 and updating Item 2 Sale 3 with info from last suggestions comment section, which can be found here:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/69836ef1e00736b7ea0c8f81

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/2841262568

Sale 1: Sold for a Burning Flames Exquisite Rack, a Morning Glory Hong Kong Cone, Haunted Phantasm Jr Slick Cut, AND a Burning Flames Tyrantium Helmet, a Omniscient Orb Hellmet, and a Morbidly Beast Taunt: Flying Colors (the last 3 were missed originally)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1763164800/1763251200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335636056#!/compare/1763078400/1763251200

Seller proof (Thank you Estel): https://imgur.com/a/2AeTyTZ

Burning Flames Exquisite Rack open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/69823a5f0f9649797b057b4f

Taking 2140k

Haunted Phantasm Jr Slick Cut open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/69820636ca45a85c800267e2

Taking 200k

Morning Glory Hong Kong Cone open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6983685a34e4d1cfdb037219

Taking 780k

The Omniscient Orb Hellmet's only movement in-date besides the above bulk sale is selling on MCS for $200 on Jan 27th. At the $1.73 key price for that day, we get a sale of 115.61k, which is unusable, because it was on MannCo, hooray! Best I can do with this is use Next snapshots and take buyers from a few days ago at 56k~: https://imgur.com/a/oEXhKOe

Morbidly Beast Taunt: Flying Colors is in-date at 105k.

The Burning Flames Tyrantium Helmet has one other movement besides the above bulk movement, which is the following:

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/12250520106

Sale 1: Sold for a Sunbeams Troublemaker's Tossle Cap and 118k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086355525#!/compare/1763769600/1764115200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963512470#!/compare/1764115200/1764201600

I tried updating the Sunbeams Troublemaker's Tossle Cap to no avail, will leave the micro for it's ineligible movements below for context:

-----

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/10380078171

Sale 1: Sold alongside 118k for a Burning Flames Tyrantium Helmet

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086355525#!/compare/1763769600/1764115200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963512470#!/compare/1764115200/1764201600

This is a mini for the Tyrantium.

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/10075033517

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1762819200/1762905600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094818081#!/compare/1762819200/1762905600

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/4961877280

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1762646400/1762732800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075439885#!/compare/1762646400/1763251200

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/461625246

Looks like 3 same day movements before a dump to Clone Theta, likely scam related or just bulk buyouts.

-----

Since this isn't a super suitable price suggestion but still works here, so rather than take buyers of 242.8k for the Tyrantium, I'll take Tossle Cap's buyers + 118k, giving us 175k + 118k = 293k, a better approximation of its value than just buyers

BF Tyrantium buyers: https://imgur.com/a/lRLzS8m

Sunbeams Tossle Cap buyers: https://imgur.com/a/5jzfi96

Total for Sale 1: 2140 + 200 + 780 + 56 + 105 + 293 = 3574k

Sale 2: Sold alongside a Phosphorous Troublemaker's Tossle Cap, a Starstorm Insomnia Hong Kong Cone, and 100 keys for a GPan

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335636056#!/compare/1767398400/1767484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1767398400/1767484800

GPan is in-date at 3675k.

Phosphorous Troublemaker's Tossle Cap doesn't even get a full micro, as it's only other movement is a bot dump seen below, before being withdrawn by Vytal and used as bulk in the above sale.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165597659#!/compare/1766793600/1767312000

Microing it at buyers of 212k: https://imgur.com/a/iGFDC2n

Starstorm Insomnia Hong Kong Cone was redumped by Ultralow but gets way below buyers, sale is possibly incomplete, he receives 233k~ which doesn't seem accurate especially given current classifieds/STN buy orders, so still microing this at buyers despite my open suggestion here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/69836b545dfbc92fef0a1f9f

https://imgur.com/a/mqIR1yy STN buyer at 310k 42r, or using 57.94 ref price for keys, 310.73k

Total for Sale 2: 3675 - 310.73 - 212 = 3152.27k.

Sale 3: Sold alongside 300k for a GPan

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1767484800/1767571200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1767571200/1767657600

GPan is in-date at 3675k, -300k in adds gives us 3375k for Sale 3.

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/3060897890

Sale 1: Sold alongside a Time Warp Hat with No Name for a Frostbite Blighted Beak, Halcyon Halo Battle Boonie, and 900 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346080922#!/compare/1763596800/1763683200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134512931#!/compare/1763596800/1763683200

This is a mini (lol) for the Blighted Beak.

Sale 2: Sold for a Misty Skull Hat with No Name, a Harvest Moon Hunter in Darkness, a Bewitching Bugs Sinner's Shade, and 25 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872222015#!/compare/1766793600/1766880000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134512931#!/compare/1766793600/1766880000

All movements on the Misty seem to be with extremely outdated prices as well (1:1'd with a Stormy 13th Hour Galvanized Gibus, 9y outdated, sold with adds for a Poisoned Shadows Dr's Dapper Topper, 4y outdated), so better used to update there.

Sale 3: Sold for the following:

Demonflame Broadband Bonnet w/ Sinister Staining, Strange Scorching Flames Whirly Warrior, Haunted Ghosts Patriot Peak, Galactic Connection Taunt: Rock, Paper, Scissors, a Dark Twilight Taunt: The Boston Boarder, a Dark Twilight Taunt: Square Dance, a Mysterious Mixture Taunt: Time Out Therapy, Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Grenade Launcher. There's a Baron's Cherished Chaplet Frag Proof Fragger and a Green Black Hole Medic's Mountain Cap also incoming, but unknown if related.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872222015#!/compare/1767398400/1767484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838788284#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400

Looking over this again, Bonzo Harmburg is also involved, it's apparently everything on Dante's side except the Darkblaze Buccaneer's Bicorne, according to Dante himself.

Bonzo the All-Gnawing Harmburg is in-date at 2000 keys.

Strange Scorching Flames Whirly Warrior open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6983a643acf9de714e0abbf1

Taking 1300 keys.

Dark Twilight Taunt: Killer Joke is in-date at 26 keys.

Dark Twilight Taunt: Square Dance micro:

-----

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/4776146253

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872222015#!/compare/1767398400/1767484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838788284#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400

Sale 2: Untrace, looks like it was withdrawn, sold, and deposited again same day, can't be seen entering/exiting either inventory

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/13679460536

Sale 1: Untrace, looks to have sold and been deposited on MCS same day

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047819527#!/compare/1766620800/1766707200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198851597200#!/compare/1766620800/1766793600

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/13817719948

Sale 1: Sells alongside a Spectral Spectrum Orbiting Planets Charmer's Chapeau, no way to discern what makes up what percent of value in this, so excluding

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047292719#!/compare/1769990400/1770076800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039622523#!/compare/1769990400/1770076800

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/13901696442

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1764374400/1764547200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121536574#!/compare/1764547200/1767484800

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/13969711174

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334154880#!/compare/1767830400/1769817600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199872246215#!/compare/1769817600/1769817600

Marketplace sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1106;5;u3134

$169.99 on Nov 7th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Sale is out of date, so can't see keys, presumably $1.84~ but over unsolds regardless

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/ND20xx4

Taking STN buyers at 33k.

-----

Dark Twilight Taunt: The Boston Boarder micro:

-----

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/13920160553

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872222015#!/compare/1767398400/1767484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838788284#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400

Sale 2: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198329439258#!/compare/1768003200/1768262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872222015#!/compare/1768089600/1768176000

Sale 3: Bot dump (53k 16.44r)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198329439258#!/compare/1768608000/1768694400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1768608000/1768694400

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/VhVthNu

Between taking STN buyers at 50k or classifieds at 40k, STN's not buying but since there was a bot dump above this anyways, seems like it's fine to take 50k here.

-----

Mysterious Mixture Taunt: Time Out Therapy micro:

-----

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/12180967997

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872222015#!/compare/1767398400/1767484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838788284#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400

Marketplace sale:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31154;5;u3092

Sold for $44.99 on Jan 19th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Key price $1.82 for the day

$44.99/$1.82 = 24.72k

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/oQtVCZM

24.72k marketplace sale is over a 20 key unsold for 3 months, comical exclusion. Taking STN buyers at 7k 29.11r, or using 57.94 ref key price, 7.5k

-----

No special kit, microing the Strange PKS Aussie GL at buyers of 32.32k: https://imgur.com/a/S2YzMun

Galactic Connection Rock, Paper, Scissors open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/697d86fdfcc18c0eb5007b72

Taking 86k

Haunted Ghosts Patriot Peak open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6983f00a1e576b8d210b310d

Taking 165k

Demonflame Broadband Bonnet w/ Sinister Staining has no useable movements or spelled buyers, so taking generic buyers at 472k: https://imgur.com/a/MRv7KgT

Total for Sale 3: 2000 + 1300 + 26 + 33 + 50 + 7.5 + 32.32 + 86 + 165 + 472 = 4171.82k

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/1XAAfAi

Sales at 3152k, 3375k, 3574k, 4171.82k. Our low end became a new high end, and we still have an outlier about 600 keys above that sale. As stated in the last suggestion, I'd defer to mods on whether this should be a 3150-3550 suggestion or if we stretch it out to 3150-4150, but I think with the adjustment upwards with the correction of Item 1 Sale 1 warrants adding our bigger sale for now. Taking 3152k rounded to 3150k for the low end, and 4171.82k rounded down to 4150k for the high end.

much better now, thanks for putting in the work to redo it

We always do our best here, but if mods no likey 4150, then oh well, it is a pretty big outlier, but corrections to first sale give it a much better chance of holding up now.

I really don't think it's that off, it's barely like 30ish% above the low end, and the middle sale supports it

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838788284#!/compare/1770422400/1770854400

new sale, 1:1 for a gpan

Yeah I think this solidifies keeping 4150 in the range, sales at 3150~, 3375, 3575~, new GPan sale at 3675 (supporting midpoint of 3650), and then the 4150 sale, so this should be good.

i'd argue this supports leaving 4150 out of the range here. the second highest sale is the pan sale which is still 500 keys away from the sale at 4150 sale. and 4150 resold for 3675.

also, for the sale at 3150:

- you've missed the 100 keys that were added as well and the cone should be taken at 359 not at buyers.

Combined with the -100 and -49 for the difference in the Cone that would put the sale at 3000k~, so it would make sense to cull both the low end sale at 3000 and the high end at 4150, and resuggest this with a new range at 3375-3675 (using the value of the GPan at time of sale) correct?

i'm not seeing a very strong reason to exclude 3000 here compared to excluding 4150 as that resold for quite a bit less than what it was originally bought for

Mostly to cut both ends by a similar amount, we're subtracting 475k~ from high end so subtracting 375k~ from low end seems appropriate, additionally buyers were at 2800k at the time of making this a little over a month ago, and only disappeared for what looks like small periods up as recent as yesterday:

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Green%20Black%20Hole%20Exquisite%20Rack/69b690d6b031261a5a0ad89b

I think 4150 is excluded on the basis of a lower resale, but that the 3000 sale is an outlier value-wise (it's only 375k~ off next lowest at 3375, but the higher end has an additional sale to support it), and should be omitted for consistency with establishing the range, and buyer proximity comparative to other sales.

sorry for the wait, but yes that seems fair. feel free to re-suggest accordingly