Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/11826805077

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1766016000/1766102400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124141056#!/compare/1766016000/1766188800

Listed on bot and sold for 18 keys

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/8366027203

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199112522018#!/compare/1765497600/1765584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1765497600/1765584000

17 keys

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1765497600/1765584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198950650033#!/compare/1745193600/1768348800

Untrace

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198950650033#!/compare/1768348800/1769731200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1768348800/1768435200

Traded back

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1769644800/1769731200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199268326484#!/compare/1768608000/1769731200

Bulk, possibly gambling

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199268326484#!/compare/1769990400/1770163200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1769990400/1770163200

Bulk/gambling

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1769817600/1769990400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199044458118#!/compare/1769904000/1769990400

Bulk/gambling

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199044458118#!/compare/1770076800/1770163200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1769990400/1770163200

Bulk/gambling

Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1771545600/1771632000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198449168929#!/compare/1770163200/1771632000

Bulk/gambling

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/13590396712

Sale 10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1768521600/1768608000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057285337#!/compare/1768521600/1768608000

~15 keys

Sale 11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057285337#!/compare/1769299200/1769385600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1769212800/1769299200

Untrace

Sale 12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1771545600/1771632000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198318474035#!/compare/1771545600/1771632000

Untrace, possible bulk

MPTF: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1157;5;u3185

Items 4 and 5: https://backpack.tf/item/13897662686 https://backpack.tf/item/15259428061

Sale 13:

Sold for $31.99 on December 20 2025

Keys were $1.83 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

31.99/1.83=17.48 ~17 keys

Sale 14:

Sold for $36.99 on January 2 2026

Keys were $1.85

36.99/1.85=19,99 ~20 keys

Sales:

15, 17, 17, 18, 20

Sellers:

BPTF - https://imgur.com/AtVcFGV 19.45 keys (2 days), 40 keys (11 months), buyers up to ~16.5 keys

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1157;5;u3185 none

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Snowy+Day+Taunt%3A+Kazotsky+Kick none but buy order at nearly 17 keys

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Kazotsky%20Kick?filter=Snowy+Day https://imgur.com/EKTye3r none

15 is definitely too low given there are too many buyers for higher. 2 days isn't long so I'm keeping 20 in the range and going with 17-20 keys.