Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/2998290266

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1766016000/1766102400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986698138#!/compare/1766102400/1767052800

16 keys + 2 Specialized KS Eyelander Kits

Specialized KS Eyalander Kit mini: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Non-Craftable%20Specialized%20Killstreak%20Eyelander%20Kit&at=2026-02-26T21:13:46.564Z

Past 30 days:

Sales:

2 @ 46.11 ref

1 @ 44.88 ref

2 @ 40.33 ref

Buys:

2 @ 42.44 ref

2 @ 42.33 ref

2 @ 41.66 ref

2 @ 41.33 ref

2 @ 40.88 ref

2 @ 40.33 ref

2 @ 40.22 ref

4 @ 40 ref

2 @ 39.88 ref

2 @ 38.44 ref

2 @ 37.88 ref

6 @ 37.66 ref

Taking 37.66-46.11 ref (with the key price with a median of 57.94 ref, that gives us 0.65-0.8 keys, taking 0.73 as a median point)

0.73*2=1.46 keys, 16+1.46=17.46 keys, rounding to 17 and taking 17

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/3486194485

Listed on Mannco.Store

Sales:

17

Sellers:

BPTF - https://imgur.com/SnTI4OH ~18 keys (1 month)

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1118;5;u3046 none

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Toxic+Terrors+Taunt%3A+Conga none

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Conga?filter=Toxic+Terrors 46.24€ and up (~23 keys)

Going with 17 keys