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~164.5 keys
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Unusual Deep Cover Operator Burning Flames
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Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/15892210831


Sale 1: Marketplace sale (Jan 10th), listed below


Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/16109423810


Sale 1: Sold for a Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Sniper Rifle, a Max's Severed Head, and 49k


Sniper Rifle resold 3 days later for 90k, so taking that value here:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115841780#!/compare/1766188800/1766793600


Max's Severed Head is in-date at 26k.


90 + 26 + 49 = 165k for Sale 1


Sale 2: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025018960#!/compare/1768521600/1768608000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720#!/compare/1768262400/1768608000


Sale 3: Marketplace sale (Feb 6th), listed below


Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/16676043681


Sale 1: Looks to have moved for a double spelled Massed Flies Towering Pillar of Hats, with the only other movement being untrace. Couldn't find a snapshot indicating a listing price either, so excluding this.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198201518699#!/compare/1770595200/1770681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182016589#!/compare/1770422400/1770681600


Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/16680606350


Sale 1: Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199087253614#!/compare/1770076800/1770768000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1770076800/1770163200


Sale 2: Bot to bot dump? Was on Scrap so likely picked up and insta resold if below buyers

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1770768000/1770854400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1770768000/1770854400


Sale 3: Untrace, presumably bought off of STN then put on MannCo, no keys incoming of similar value and no shared history

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1772064000/1772150400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199416718889#!/compare/1771545600/1772150400


Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/10340669109


Sale 1: Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031673028#!/compare/1765324800/1765411200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1765324800/1765411200


Sale 2: Sold same day by STN, there's a 42k 1 ref bundle incoming from Pamit, but nothing matching up with the Operator, even minus the 61 metal that's 133k~ outgoing and 42k for the Blizzardy Storm Winter Woodsman which he receives from the same bot, it's maximum 91k which is below buyers. Hell even if the full 133k was for this, it would still be an outlier.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1765670400/1765756800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093829935#!/compare/1764633600/1765756800


Sale 3: Sold for 80k and a Purple Energy Deep Cover Operator

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093829935#!/compare/1765843200/1767916800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050504972#!/compare/1766534400/1769644800


All movements of the PE Deep Cover are unusable, except a $179.99 sale on Jan 1st, but with 3 unsolds at $154.99, it's not useable. Microing at buyers of 51.8k: https://imgur.com/a/2RxtmeN


51.8k + 80k = 131.8k for Sale 3.


Marketplace sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30375;5;u13

Sold for $299.99 Jan 10th and $329.99 Feb 6th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Key price Jan 10th is $1.83, and Feb 6th is $1.85

Jan 10th sale: $299.99/$1.83 = 163.93k

Feb 6th sale: $329.99/$1.85 = 178.37k


Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/4YtBent


Sales at 131.8k, 163.93k, 165k, and 178.37k. Excluding 131.8k as an outlier, and 178.37k as above current unsold (only 9d old, but also helps since I'm removing the low sale). Taking 163.93k rounded up to 164k for the low end, and 165k for the high end in a silly 1 key range.