Suggestion: Nebula Universal Translator at 471–500 keys

Sale 2: Untrace, nothing obtained of value on seller's side comparable, including the outgoing stuff that shares a history, even taking Terror-Watt Shaman at in-date of 186 and the Strange Sparkling Lights Yule Hog at in-date of 45, the Bubbling Herald at unsolds of 26, Spectral Overlord at 120, the total is 377 in the best case scenario, which is below buyers regardless.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1769299200/1769385600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117384982#!/compare/1769299200/1769385600

Silvius dumps same day to Merendeas, who lists on Marketplace after.

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/8484927540

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112779962#!/compare/1765497600/1769385600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057412106#!/compare/1765843200/1769385600

Sale 2: Marketplace sale, listed below (presumably the one around Feb 21st, as that's when its obtained by buyer)

Further movements look like gifting due to the tags and lack of received items.

Item 7: https://backpack.tf/item/8297103483

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199046064612#!/compare/1769126400/1769212800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138858282#!/compare/1769126400/1769212800

Item 8: https://backpack.tf/item/8130104814

Sale 1: Marketplace sale (Dec 25th sale), listed below

Item 9: https://backpack.tf/item/7912549073

Ignoring MCS / scam-related movements.

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966524361#!/compare/1772150400/1772236800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986850781#!/compare/1772150400/1772236800

Item 10: https://backpack.tf/item/7672464451

Sale 1: 450k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198933897571#!/compare/1764720000/1765152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111841329#!/compare/1764201600/1765152000

Item 11: https://backpack.tf/item/7564148259

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960291079#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085861958#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400

Item 12: https://backpack.tf/item/6684771676

Sale 1: Marketplace sale (likely the one around Dec 12th), listed below

Item 13: https://backpack.tf/item/4788132467

Sale 1: Untrace, date mismatch

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143768590#!/compare/1766620800/1766966400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027857565#!/compare/1766966400/1767225600

Sale 2: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027857565#!/compare/1767312000/1767916800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117384982#!/compare/1767830400/1767916800

Sales 3/4 are with a scam-related offense, not sure if ban occured around time of trades but listed just in case:

Sale 3: Untrace, 461k outgoing and none match, nothing obtained by Silvius item-wise comparable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117384982#!/compare/1768176000/1768262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198848879603#!/compare/1768003200/1768262400

Sale 4: Sold alongside 500k for a Time Warp War Pig

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198848879603#!/compare/1768780800/1768867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1768780800/1768867200

Better used on the War Pig, assuming the movement isn't burned due to scammer offense.

Sale 5: Sold for 461k and a Strange Professional Killstreak Degreaser

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1768780800/1768867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448364970#!/compare/1768780800/1768867200

Microing the Degreaser at buyers of 9.76k: https://imgur.com/a/ZQ7gOL7

Total for Sale 5: 461 + 9.76 = 470.76k

Sale 6: Sold for 455k and a Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Blutsauger

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198448364970#!/compare/1769817600/1769904000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098366624#!/compare/1769817600/1769904000

No buyers for Tornado/Team Shine, microing at generic buyers of 8.61k: https://imgur.com/a/oBsDQaJ

Total for Sale 6: 455 + 8.61 = 463.61k

Sale 7: Sold alongside 20k for a Blizzardy Storm Exquisite Rack, a Sunbeams Tipped Lid, and a '72 Taunt: Conga

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098366624#!/compare/1769904000/1769990400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198861653563#!/compare/1769644800/1769990400

Better used to refresh the Rack.

Sale 8: Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198861653563#!/compare/1770249600/1771891200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1770249600/1770336000

Item 14: https://backpack.tf/item/4766097164

Sale 1: Sold alongside 50k for a Roboactive Lucky Shot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163529974#!/compare/1767916800/1768003200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254882979#!/compare/1767484800/1768003200

Will use this to update Lucky Shot.

Sale 2: Sells for 413k, a Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Scattergun, a Genuine Professional Killstreak Three-Rune Blade, and a Bubbling Stainless Pot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254882979#!/compare/1768003200/1768089600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120481051#!/compare/1767830400/1768262400

Given the overall low value of these (and no specific buyers for the Aussie Scatter kit combo), microing these at buyers of 69.38k for the Scatter, 19.13k for the Pot, and 8.04k for the Genuine Blade. All screenshots here: https://imgur.com/a/mY7XQXI

Total for Sale 2: 413 + 69.38 + 19.13 + 8.04 = 509.55k

Sale 3: Sold alongside a Celestial Starburst Flame Warrior and 186k for a Demonflame Cyborg Stunt Helmet

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120481051#!/compare/1769040000/1769472000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1769385600/1769472000

Better used to update the Stunt Helmet.

Sale 4: Sells for a bulk of spelled items and unusuals, but is resold same day to Laurennntiu by Luke

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1769817600/1769904000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072441047#!/compare/1769817600/1769904000

Sale 5: Electric Hat Protector Captain Space Mann looks involved alongside 290k incoming from Luke, but the Nebula Translator isn't seen entering her inventory, but that's due to it selling same-day. Would be better used on updating the Space Mann though.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1769817600/1769904000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072441047#!/compare/1769817600/1769904000

Sale 6: Untrace, nothing entering Lauren's inv after sale 5, nothing seen exiting Crack's inventory of comparable value

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1769817600/1769904000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564933935#!/compare/1769817600/1769904000

Sale 7: Sold for a Morning Glory Officer's Ushanka, a Sunbeams Hermes, and 150k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564933935#!/compare/1770854400/1770940800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344570674#!/compare/1770854400/1770940800

Better used in updating the Ushanka. Also sold same day.

Sale 8: 480k (outgoing match, 5k are likely used to buy the tickets we see seller acquire same day)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344570674#!/compare/1770940800/1771113600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198241622178#!/compare/1771027200/1771113600

Item 15: https://backpack.tf/item/4535408024

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207690748#!/compare/1769472000/1770940800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244962432#!/compare/1769472000/1770940800

Item 16: https://backpack.tf/item/4394566678

Sale 1: Marketplace sale (likely Jan 6th), listed below

Sale 2: Sold alongside a Max's Severed Head for a Burning Flames Brotherhood of Arms

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198283619846#!/compare/1768521600/1768608000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132741569#!/compare/1768435200/1768608000

BF Brotherhood is in-date at 434.5k, Max's midpoint is about 24.2k~, so this would give us a sale of 410k, far below buyers and other sales, so excluding.

Sale 3: Sold for a Starstorm Slumber Pirate Bandana, a Celestial Starburst Brimmed Bootlegger, a Green Black Hole Shooter's Sola Topi, a Strange Professional Killstreak AWPer Hand, a Strange Festive Crusader's Crossbow, a Strange Festive Übersaw, a Professional Killstreak Grenade Launcher Kit Fabricator, and 87k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132741569#!/compare/1771372800/1771718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110654535#!/compare/1771632000/1771804800

Depending on the nature of the bulk used here, this could be used to update the GBH Sola Topi.

Item 17: https://backpack.tf/item/4369686779

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054966400#!/compare/1739059200/1765411200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152373135#!/compare/1765324800/1765411200

Sale 2: 470k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152373135#!/compare/1766016000/1766102400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198332949751#!/compare/1765929600/1766016000

Sale 3: Sold for what looks like 462k, 15k matching on seller's side

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198332949751#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210780536#!/compare/1767225600/1767312000

Sale 4: 485k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210780536#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096404008#!/compare/1767398400/1768348800

Sale 5: 457k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096404008#!/compare/1768348800/1768435200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027857565#!/compare/1768089600/1768435200

Sale 6: 475k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027857565#!/compare/1770249600/1770940800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047544122#!/compare/1770508800/1770681600

Item 18: https://backpack.tf/item/4302723118

Sale 1: Sold for a It's a Secret to Everybody Coupe D'isaster, a Strange Festive Sandvich, a Strange Specialized Killstreak Australium Force-a-Nature, a Dark Twilight Taunt: The Russian Arms Race, and 85k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061440669#!/compare/1768348800/1768435200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213440243#!/compare/1768262400/1768435200

Better used to update the Secret to Everybody Coupe D'isaster.

Item 19: https://backpack.tf/item/4295858553

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1770768000/1770854400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203919051#!/compare/1770422400/1770854400

Item 20: https://backpack.tf/item/4195752235

Sale 1: 451k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199020164416#!/compare/1764892800/1764979200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376852470#!/compare/1764892800/1764979200

Marketplace sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30658;5;u99

Sold for $925 Dec. 12th and 25th

Sold for $969.69 Jan. 6th

Sold for $999 Feb. 21st

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Key prices are $1.80 for Dec. 12th, $1.87 Dec. 25th, $1.85 Jan 6th, and $1.88 Feb 21st

Totals for sales:

Dec. 12th: $925 / $1.80 = 513.89k

Dec. 25th: $925 / $1.87 = 494.65k

Jan. 6th: $969.69 / $1.85 = 524.16k

Feb. 21st: $999 / $1.88 = 531.38k

Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/JzgSlNy

Sales at 450, 451, 457, 462, 463.61, 470.76, 475, 480, 480, 485, 494.65, 495, 500, 509.55, 513.89, 524.16, and 531.38k.

Buyers are currently at 467, so excluding all sales at below the 470.76k sale. While our sellers are all price matching at 600k, the marketplace sales at 513.89 and above are also outliers compared to the majority of key/mixed sales. I would also exclude the 509.55k sale, as this used micros for the smaller items, and would likely be close to the already excluded 513.89k sale. Taking 470.76k rounded up to 471k for the low end, and 500k for the high end.

Impressive work, would like to add that the current STN listing at 498 further supports excluding the high sales 509+

https://imgur.com/BGDGXsc

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Nebula+Universal+Translator this one on STN got bought now. Either way, it’s in range.

item 17 sale 3 was 460, but its close enough, went to my buy order anyways