Sale 1:

Sold with a negligible amount of metal for 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1772150400/1772236800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008602915#!/compare/1772236800/1772323200

https://backpack.tf/item/15313872250

https://i.imgur.com/Nq87ULe.png - B/O of ~”5.85 keys”, keys were selling at ~51 ref, the exact listing would’ve been around 5 keys + ~48 ref. While some metal involved seems to be missing, it shouldn’t have enough of an effect on this sale.

= 6 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316831771#!/compare/1769126400/1769212800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034161075#!/compare/1769040000/1769644800

https://backpack.tf/item/13736582090

= 6 keys

Sale 3:

Sold with negligible metal for 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1771632000/1771718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199527535609#!/compare/1771718400/1771804800

https://backpack.tf/item/10122730420

= 6 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 4 keys + ~7.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199866248709#!/compare/1768608000/1768694400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316831771#!/compare/1768608000/1768694400

https://backpack.tf/item/13736582090

= 4 keys

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 4 keys + 9 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083250307#!/compare/1765238400/1765324800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1765238400/1765324800

https://backpack.tf/item/10122730420

= 4 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198307473975#!/compare/1771804800/1771891200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1771804800/1771891200

https://backpack.tf/item/15689841879

Bulk/untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199100244095#!/compare/1766534400/1766707200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1766620800/1766707200

https://backpack.tf/item/15655037643

Untraceable/Slight bulk

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111026487#!/compare/1771113600/1772409600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236847616#!/compare/1772236800/1772409600

https://backpack.tf/item/15148009314

Most likely bulk for the Strange Original, seller is private

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034161075#!/compare/1771804800/1772064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1771977600/1772064000

https://backpack.tf/item/13736582090

Untraceable bot dump, follows the 2nd 6 key sale in Sale 2

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044949718#!/compare/1754697600/1764892800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198289040457#!/compare/1764806400/1764892800

https://backpack.tf/item/13236529545

Backpack buy

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198289040457#!/compare/1764806400/1764892800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068199194#!/compare/1765843200/1766016000

https://backpack.tf/item/13236529545

Untraceable, very likely a marketplace purchase

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068199194#!/compare/1769558400/1769990400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1769644800/1769731200

https://backpack.tf/item/13236529545

Bulk/cashout to qsstore

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1770940800/1771027200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198856789348#!/compare/1770768000/1771027200

https://backpack.tf/item/13236529545

3 keys, unique Pooped Deck, and various cheaper cosmetics match. Given past B/Os from qsstore, this most likely is missing more items that were involved. If this is truly all that was involved, this should fall into the range here.

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199478610938#!/compare/1768608000/1772496000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275313819#!/compare/1768780800/1769472000

https://backpack.tf/item/12372941421

Probably gambled

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275313819#!/compare/1770336000/1771977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199010639131#!/compare/1770422400/1770508800

https://backpack.tf/item/12372941421

Probably gambled again

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199010639131#!/compare/1770508800/1770595200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198803989694#!/compare/1770422400/1770595200

https://backpack.tf/item/12372941421

Probably gambled once more

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199872084040#!/compare/1763856000/1768694400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1768608000/1768694400

https://backpack.tf/item/11616399290

Untraceable, probably fenced

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1769126400/1769212800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019155190#!/compare/1755820800/1770249600

https://backpack.tf/item/11616399290

Untraceable

#14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199014107364#!/compare/1767139200/1767571200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1767484800/1767571200

https://backpack.tf/item/10213278726

Likely cashout

#15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199874911323#!/compare/1770249600/1770336000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199870382085#!/compare/1770163200/1770336000

https://backpack.tf/item/9745759324

Untraceable, likely bulk. Exo Minigun matches.

#16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199870382085#!/compare/1770163200/1770336000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1770249600/1770336000

https://backpack.tf/item/9745759324

Untraceable/Bulk

#17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1766534400/1766620800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199069442401#!/compare/1766361600/1766707200

https://backpack.tf/item/9642051903

Bulk for keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14670767668 - most likely scammed

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31153;5;u3005

https://backpack.tf/item/12410665599 - Dec 18th

https://backpack.tf/item/13236529545 - One Dec 25th

https://backpack.tf/item/10916152670 - Another Dec 25th

https://backpack.tf/item/10467247761 - Jan 15th

$15.99, December 18th, 25th (2x), & Jan 15th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.83, December 18th & Jan 15th

$1.87, December 25th

15.99/1.83 = 8.738, rounds to 8.5 keys

15.99/1.87 = 8.551, rounds to 8.5 keys

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/3BV0tRw.png

https://backpack.tf/item/15148009314 - ~5.35 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13736582090 - ~5.85 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9745759324 - ~5.85 keys

Sales at:

4 (2x)

6 (3x)

8.5 (4x, marketplace)

One of the sales at 6 resold

3 sellers for significantly cheaper than the marketplace sales at 8.5, excluding 8.5, despite the amount of sales we have there.

4 is a common trading point. It may not look like it with 2 confirmed sales at 4, but with #1, 2, 4, 7, 12, 14 & 16 all being untraceable bot dumps, we’re going to need to use 4 as a low-end here. We obviously can’t exclude these sales and take 6 flat with a seller at ~5.35 either.

Taking 4-6 keys.