Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/8792189548

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199496463259#!/compare/1769644800/1769990400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1769990400/1770076800

Dumped to STN alongside the Split Malice Mannbulance! for ~21 keys

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1770595200/1770681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115908822#!/compare/1770595200/1770681600

15 keys and 2 scrap, 15 keys

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/11301202641

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198295702119#!/compare/1767312000/1767484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1767312000/1767398400

Dumped to STN, untrace

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1768694400/1768780800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034287318#!/compare/1768694400/1768780800

Sold alongside 19 ref for 16 keys, still rounds to 16

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/2755825511

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101442624#!/compare/1765756800/1765843200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255189288#!/compare/1765756800/1765843200

18 keys

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255189288#!/compare/1768262400/1768348800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088591924#!/compare/1768262400/1768348800

Untrace/bulk, buyer listed it on MPTF

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/10502616195

Listed on Mannco.Store, the MPTF sale either didn't happen or it was the one in November which is now outdated

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/12497722381

what a history lol

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102430997#!/compare/1765152000/1765324800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1765324800/1765411200

Untrace

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1767916800/1768003200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198823049913#!/compare/1760313600/1768003200

Bulk

Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198823049913#!/compare/1768003200/1769385600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207114669#!/compare/1767225600/1768089600

Bulk

Sale 10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207114669#!/compare/1768089600/1768608000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1768089600/1768176000

Bulk, at this rate if it isn't gambling idk what it is

Sale 11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1769299200/1769472000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169804678#!/compare/1769212800/1769472000

Bulk

Sale 12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169804678#!/compare/1769990400/1770163200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1769990400/1770163200

Bulk

Sale 13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1771545600/1771632000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207114669#!/compare/1771286400/1771632000

Bulk

Sale 14:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207114669#!/compare/1771632000/1772323200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414837199#!/compare/1771804800/1771891200

Bulk

Sales:

15, 16, 18

Sellers:

BPTF - https://imgur.com/7dqvj8K 16.48 and 16.5 keys (12 and 14 days respectively)

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1118;5;u3108 $39.99 (~21 keys)

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Festivized+Formation+Taunt%3A+Conga none

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Conga?filter=Festivized+Formation https://imgur.com/3OUvdOs 104.93€ (~52 keys)

18 is probably a bit high but I don't feel like 2 weeks is that long. Going with 15-18 keys puts the median value at 16.5 keys, which is what the current sellers are at so it seems fair. In any case a hard drop is necessary