Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/7958795164

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039902891#!/compare/1768089600/1768262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236041414#!/compare/1768003200/1768348800

14 keys + Burning Flames Coldsnap Cap + Strange Cold Snap Coat + Strange Festivized Professional Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher

Burning Flames Coldsnap Cap (160-200 keys, mean value of 180): https://backpack.tf/suggestion/697780f000f064088d087845

Strange Cold Snap Coat mini:

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Strange%20Cold%20Snap%20Coat&at=2026-01-14T22:31:21.607Z

Taking past 30 days at the time of the sale

Sales:

1 @ 3 keys 47.66 ref

1 @ 3 keys 47.33 ref

1 @ 3 keys 42.55 ref

1 @ 3 keys 40.55 ref

1 @ 3 keys 39.33 ref

1 @ 3 keys 38.66 ref

1 @ 3 keys 38.55 ref

Buys:

2 @ 3 keys 58.11 ref

2 @ 3 keys 56 ref

2 @ 3 keys 53.22 ref

2 @ 3 keys 45.33 ref

4 @ 3 keys 45.22 ref

2 @ 3 keys 43.77 ref

2 @ 3 keys 43 ref

2 @ 3 keys 42.55 ref

2 @ 3 keys 41 ref

2 @ 3 keys 40.77 ref

2 @ 3 keys 40.66 ref

2 @ 3 keys 28.11 ref

Most of these sales would round up to 4 keys, taking 4 keys

Strange Festivized Professional Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher mini:

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Strange%20Festivized%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Australium%20Rocket%20Launcher&at=2026-01-14T22:34:37.138Z

Taking past 30 days at the time of the sale

Sales:

1 @ 98 keys

1 @ 86 keys

1 @ 78 keys 16.66 ref

Buys:

6 @ 74 keys 45.33 ref

2 @ 74 keys 44.11 ref

98 seems like an outlier however 86 seems reasonable to include given it was more recent and is fairly closer to the other sales. Taking 75-86 keys (mean value of 80.5)

180+4+80.5=264.5 ~265 keys

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/15587660591

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251704884#!/compare/1767484800/1767657600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069735013#!/compare/1767657600/1771200000

Untrace

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/14655711780

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100675716#!/compare/1769299200/1769644800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199873012555#!/compare/1769644800/1769644800

Untrace/bulk

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199873012555#!/compare/1769644800/1769644800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1769644800/1769558400

Dumped to STN, untrace

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1770768000/1770854400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180923509#!/compare/1770768000/1770854400

Untrace, buyer listed on Mannco.Store

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/14374681450

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1767657600/1767744000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1767571200/1767657600

239 keys

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1769040000/1769126400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198332949751#!/compare/1768953600/1769126400

Seller confirmed that they bought it for someone else and gave it to them via Paypal for the same price https://imgur.com/A93VCtV

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/14017354882

Listed on MPTF

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/12885457948

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073751817#!/compare/1770336000/1770422400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073438708#!/compare/1770336000/1770422400

201 keys match in both sides

Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073438708#!/compare/1771372800/1771459200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198415180580#!/compare/1771372800/1771459200

Untrace

Sale 10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198415180580#!/compare/1771459200/1771545600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129378651#!/compare/1771372800/1771459200

260 keys match in buyer's comapre

Item 7: https://backpack.tf/item/12515687362

Sale 11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079869886#!/compare/1767312000/1768521600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199658782320#!/compare/1767571200/1768521600

Bulk

Sale 12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199658782320#!/compare/1768521600/1768694400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1768435200/1768521600

Bulk

Item 8: https://backpack.tf/item/12250317937

Sale 13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254136514#!/compare/1766448000/1768780800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198201745726#!/compare/1768694400/1768780800

Untrace

Sale 14:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198201745726#!/compare/1768867200/1768953600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1768867200/1768953600

Dumped to STN, untrace.

It then got bought and instantly listed on MPTF but there's no way to know who did it

Sales:

201, 239, 260, 265

Sellers:

BPTF - https://imgur.com/BymODGq 260 keys (18 days), 270 keys (4 months), 300 keys (10 months), buyers up to ~200 keys

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/538;5;u10 3 at $474.99 (~250 keys)

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Purple+Energy+Killer+Exclusive none

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Killer%20Exclusive?filter=Purple+Energy https://imgur.com/eAvc9Qp 619.88€ (~305 keys)

201 is currently 1 key above buyers and was purchased by a quickbuyer so it feels low to include. On the other hand, 265 feels a bit high with all those sellers at 250 keys on MPTF and the pure seller at 260 keys. However, since there isn't a sale at 250 keys, I think it's reasonable to use 260 as the high end especially given it was full pure. This will put the median value at around 250 keys.

Trimming 201 and 265 from the range and going with 239-260 keys