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~105 keys
sakura smoke bomb
Unusual Flame Warrior Sakura Smoke Bomb
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Fixed Item 2 Sale 2 after reaching out to seller


Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/14048476770


Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058356352#!/compare/1766448000/1766534400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396499936#!/compare/1766448000/1766534400


Sale 2: Untrace, Juroff has outgoing to Mareako here, but no incoming for Mareako to show what was dumped and what sold same day

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396499936#!/compare/1770249600/1770336000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310750043#!/compare/1770249600/1770336000


Sale 3: Same day sale, possibly to STN based on incoming keys (and then bought by Capy), otherwise untrace as Capy has a massive date mismatch and is only parsed after the Flame Warrior leaves

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310750043#!/compare/1770249600/1770336000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353038977#!/compare/1766534400/1770508800


Sale 4: Bulk/dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353038977#!/compare/1770508800/1770595200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966524361#!/compare/1770422400/1770508800


Sale 5: Sold alongside 5 keys for a Stormy Storm Hong Kong Cone

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966524361#!/compare/1770768000/1770854400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199239805280#!/compare/1770854400/1771027200


Stormy Storm Hong Kong Cone can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/69b041802fe8f0b488025dc5

Taking 91.5k, minus 5 keys in adds, gives us 86.5k for Sale 5.


Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/13403048467


Sale 1: 105k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100471492#!/compare/1768780800/1769040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043444428#!/compare/1768608000/1768780800


Sale 2: Sold for a Butterfly Season Reel Fly Hat, a Spectral Swirl Taunt: The Schadenfreude, and an Aces High Bone Dome

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050645518#!/compare/1772582400/1772668800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043444428#!/compare/1772582400/1772668800


Butterfly Season Reel Fly Hat open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/69b04259075fd7a4460726d8

Taking unrounded value of 56.47k.


Spectral Swirl Taunt: The Schadenfreude open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/69b050df7f68b72ec20e5cd4

Taking midpoint of 95k.


Aces High Bone Dome open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/69b0433febc39a6b720976ae

Taking unrounded value of 10k 50.66r, or 50.66/54.325 = .93k for 10.93k.


Total for Sale 2: 56.47 + 95 + 10.93 = 162.4k


Buyout cap for this will be kinda strange, but needs to be capped as there's two others that were listed at the same price:

Sold on March 5th, and was listed at $299.99 (still is, but Marketplace outdated listings moment), key price for the day is $1.90, so our buyout cap equivalent in keys at the time of sale would've been $299.99/$1.90 = 157.89k


Sale 3: Sold alongside a Purple Energy Reel Fly Hat for a Purple Confetti Wandering Wraith, which this is a mini for, so using elsewhere

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055622215#!/compare/1772841600/1773100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050645518#!/compare/1772755200/1773014400


Classifieds link: https://imgur.com/a/t79HmYU


Sales at 86.5k, 105k, and 157.89k. 86.5k excluded as it's below buyers. We have a wide range her, with 105 being effectively quicksell adjacent as buyers were at 94k~ on March 4th, around the time of sale, but the 105k sale was also so old that whether buyers have gone up to meet it or went down and it was a buy order can't be discerned from snapshots. Our high sale is also basically matching unsolds, but it was able to sell for that price in items, and should be able to do so again. Neither seems to be more of an outlier than the other, so taking both to give us a midpoint more approximate to an accurate value. Taking 105k for low end, and 157.89k rounded to 158k for the high end.

    https://ibb.co/Swz4vsxm

    https://backpack.tf/item/13403048467

    - seller at 130 keys


    158 looks a bit high here now

      Aren't listings posted after the suggestion is up supposed to not counter? Renegade listed this and dumped the Butterfly Season Reel Fly Hat to Flater from the movements in Item 2, Sale 3.

        if there are buyers listings posted after a suggestion simply just to counter a suggestion then those should be ignored.

        sellers on the other hand suggest that the price suggestion is too high

          I mean my issue is that he got the PFetti Wraith in bulk, had it listed at 225k at time of sale after taking 4-5 months to sell and took either 156k if we just ignore Sale 2, or the current suggestion price for it otherwise, and this had an item sale above the marketplace price and needed a buyout cap. Eliminating 158k from the range also means this would have to be priced using the 105k sale as a single sale, which doesn't make sense given the 158 sale still exists and that Renegade undercutting current sellers despite a recent sale at those prices.


          Objections aside, if this isn't priceable at this range, would you prefer I update this to 105 with no range, or leave it unpriced? And if it's the latter, is the given 105-158 range still valid for use as a micro in the wraith suggestion?

            It's case by case. A seller listing doesn't immediately invalidate all high sales, other factors have to come into play. (Unless the seller is below every sale in the suggested range, in that case it does invalidate every sale involved.)

            In this case, there's also the low 86.5 sale. This combined with the fact that the 130 Key seller is still unsold does indicate that 158 is an outlier, not the 130 listing alone.


            105 flat will be fine here.

              No problem, I assume the 105 flat will need to be changed in the PFetti Wraith as well?

                Yeah, you'll need to resuggest that as well.