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~67.5 keys
calm snowfall
Unusual Polar Charger Calm Snowfall
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Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/16533737321


Sale 1: 40k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042034824#!/compare/1766880000/1767052800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310750043#!/compare/1766880000/1766966400


Sale 2: 70k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310750043#!/compare/1770249600/1770336000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218613716#!/compare/1770249600/1770336000


Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/16598686379


Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011649963#!/compare/1768953600/1769040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244962432#!/compare/1768953600/1769040000


Sale 2: Sold for a Stormy Storm Glasgow Great Helm, an Unusual Horseless Headless Horsemann's Headtaker, a Captain Cardbeard Cutthroat, and a Strange Specialized Killstreak Gold Botkiller Scattergun Mk.II

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244962432#!/compare/1769472000/1769558400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195289375#!/compare/1769558400/1769644800


Stormy Storm Glasgow Great Helm open suggestion can be found here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/69b063201d0082c1cf00c46d

Taking 43k.


Micro screenshots for rounding to buyers: https://imgur.com/a/x6FDdKQ

Unusual Horseless Headless Horsemann's Headtaker - 17.55k

Captain Cardbeard Cutthroat - 3.23k

Strange Specialized Killstreak Gold Botkiller Scattergun Mk.II - 1.36k


Total for Sale 2: 43 + 17.55 + 3.23 + 1.36 = 65.14k.


No classifieds link, as no buyers/sellers exist for this specific effect currently, but will contextualize that there were buyers at 32k on March 4th and buyers at 30k as recent as March 9th at 9pm, less than 24h ago. Snapshot permalinks here: https://imgur.com/a/Zan1hcm


Sales at 40k, 65.14k, and 70k. Removing 70k as an outlier between the closer of the two sales, with support from recent buy orders being particularly close as well, further supporting it being out of place in the range here. Taking 65.14k rounded down to 65k for the low end and 70k for the high end.

    The Stormy Storm Glasgow Great Helm will need to be closed as STN's unsold at 41k is invalidating the only valid sale at 43k. However, that sale was on the same item used in this sale, so it should still be satisfactory to take 43k here for it, as him getting back roughly what he paid would be the bare minimum value expected here.