Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/10808382451

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059632349#!/compare/1771632000/1771718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079929557#!/compare/1771372800/1771718400

20 keys

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/10711414755

Sale 2:

Sold on Merchant.tf, no way to know how much it sold for

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/9965447440

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198414234955#!/compare/1767139200/1767225600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199872139792#!/compare/1767139200/1767225600

Bulk

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199872139792#!/compare/1767139200/1767225600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199537522990#!/compare/1767052800/1767225600

Bulk then listed on Mannco.Store

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/9683819308

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1765497600/1765584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066584218#!/compare/1765152000/1765670400

Bulk then listed on Mannco.Store

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/9607231035

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135483308#!/compare/1765756800/1765843200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199674417290#!/compare/1765670400/1765756800

Dumped to a bot, I see 12 keys in the buyer's compare

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199674417290#!/compare/1765756800/1765843200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141187659#!/compare/1765843200/1765929600

Bulk for 250 keys

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141187659#!/compare/1765929600/1766016000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138408723#!/compare/1765929600/1766016000

Untrace, then it sold on MPTF which I'll cover at the end

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/9667729647

Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064822359#!/compare/1766361600/1767744000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1767657600/1767744000

Bulk then sold on MPTF, which I'll cover at the end

MPTF: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1172;5;u3070

(Items 5 & 6), Item 7: https://backpack.tf/item/7343014962

Sale 10:

Sold for $44.89 on December 23 2025

Keys were $1.83 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

44.89/1.83=24.53 ~25 keys

Sale 11:

Sold for $54.99 on December 26 2025

Keys were $1.89

54.99/1.89=29.09 ~29 keys

Sale 12:

Sold for $50 on February 23 2026

Keys were $1.88

50/1.88=26.6 ~27 keys

Sale 13:

Sold for $50 on March 7 2026

Keys were $1.9

50/1.9=26.32 ~26 keys

Sales:

12, 20, 25, 26, 27, 29

Sellers:

BPTF - https://imgur.com/VUVJ8jP 27 keys (3 months), 31 keys (6 months)

MPTF - https://imgur.com/VUVJ8jP from $50 (~26 keys with the current key price)

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Aurora+Borealis+Taunt%3A+The+Victory+Lap none

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20The%20Victory%20Lap?filter=Aurora+Borealis https://imgur.com/FuyltUS none

12 is a low outlier given it's far from all the other sales and is below current buyers at ~14 keys. 29 seems like a high outlier given that seller at 27 for 3 months.

Calling 12 low and 29 high, going with 20-27 keys