Sold for 2 keys + 5 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203680409#!/compare/1769904000/1769990400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254011659#!/compare/1769904000/1769990400

https://backpack.tf/item/10650692335

= 2.1 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31161;5;u3010

https://backpack.tf/item/15144216451

$4.79, Jan 2nd

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were $1.85

4.79/1.85 = 2.589, rounds to 2.6 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254011659#!/compare/1770076800/1770163200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1770076800/1770163200

https://backpack.tf/item/10650692335

Untraceable/Bulk

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983856237#!/compare/1769040000/1769126400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1769212800/1769299200

https://backpack.tf/item/12008188675

Untraceable, gamblers involved, missing info in history

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1770595200/1770681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199017959799#!/compare/1770595200/1770681600

https://backpack.tf/item/12008188675

Same situation as above. Rest of the history is gambling-related.

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109759459#!/compare/1767744000/1773705600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199832495682#!/compare/1766361600/1767744000

https://backpack.tf/item/12579064918

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1767484800/1767571200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316831771#!/compare/1767398400/1767484800

https://backpack.tf/item/13982638141

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1766102400/1766188800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199156707106#!/compare/1760140800/1773100800

https://backpack.tf/item/15287181594

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137469207#!/compare/1766880000/1767139200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1767398400/1767484800

https://backpack.tf/item/16422598993

Backpack buy, probably

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1771545600/1771632000

https://backpack.tf/item/10650692335 - buyer unknown

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mega%20Strike%20Taunt:%20Spin-to-Win&at=2026-03-17T08:11:37.606Z - labelled as 1 key + 45 ref (keys were ~57.94, making this ~1.8 keys)

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199832495682#!/compare/1766361600/1767744000

https://backpack.tf/item/12579064918 - buyer unknown again

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mega%20Strike%20Taunt:%20Spin-to-Win&at=2026-03-17T08:11:37.606Z - labelled as 1 key + 44 ref (keys were ~58.83, making this ~1.75 keys)

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219027272#!/compare/1766534400/1766966400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127409503#!/compare/1766707200/1766793600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mega%20Strike%20Taunt:%20Spin-to-Win&at=2026-03-17T08:11:37.606Z - labelled as 1 key + 44 ref (labelled twice for some reason) (keys were ~58.83, making this ~1.75 keys)

https://backpack.tf/item/16556358705

https://backpack.tf/item/9540468095 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/9558927806 - qsstore

https://backpack.tf/item/9835257961 - alt/bot transfers

https://backpack.tf/item/9838515002 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/10033916912 - qsstore

https://backpack.tf/item/12818491294 - qsstore

https://backpack.tf/item/15144917369 - qsstore

https://backpack.tf/item/15166423862 - qsstore

https://backpack.tf/item/15445010286 - mannco/marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/15248444269 - unusualified

https://backpack.tf/item/16504600983 - unusualified

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/QNnSf9R.png

https://backpack.tf/item/11787789125 - ~2.05 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/15509864955 - ~2.1 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13982638141 - ~2.85 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/10975827539 - 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9835257961 - 4 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31161;5;u3010

https://backpack.tf/item/15445010286 - $4.79

https://backpack.tf/item/12579064918 - $4.79

https://backpack.tf/item/9540468095 - $4.79

https://backpack.tf/item/10650692335 - $4.79

https://backpack.tf/item/13550873206 - $4.99

Sales at:

2.1

2.6 (marketplace)

Excluding 2.6, due to the cheaper sellers.

2.1 flat probably won’t work with the current buyer. There were a bunch of untraceable bot dumps here. Fortunately, some of those were to gladiator bots, as reported in #8-10. As we have 3 gladiator purchases all roughly at the same price, we should be able to use this statistic in our range, giving us sales ranging from 1.75-1.8 keys. I will use 1.75 as our low-end here.

Taking 1.75-2.1 keys.