History for one of the MPTF sales: https://backpack.tf/item/15002498436

More sales here: https://backpack.tf/item/15064743878

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1767398400/1767484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1767398400/1767484800

Unclear what happened, was most likely bought from STN then instantly dumped to Quicksell.Store

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1773014400/1773100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142857625#!/compare/1773014400/1773100800

Sold for 9 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142857625#!/compare/1773532800/1773619200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103740298#!/compare/1773532800/1773619200

Dumped to a bot, was most likely ~7.5 keys https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Obnoxious%20Confetti%20Taunt:%20The%20Victory%20Lap&at=2026-03-30T21:28:03.829Z

Proper math for the Marketplace.tf sales:

January 11: $17.5, keys were $1.83 so 17.5/1.83=9.56 ~9.5 keys

March 24 2026: $17.5, keys were $1.94 so 17.5/1.94=9.02 ~9 keys

That gives us sales at 9, 9 and 9.5.

Current sellers:

Backpack.tf: https://imgur.com/IySvD4u There's a seller at 9 keys that has been there for 11 days, the others are at 10 keys.

STN: https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Obnoxious+Confetti+Taunt%3A+The+Victory+Lap None

Steam Community Market: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20The%20Victory%20Lap?filter=Obnoxious+Confetti https://imgur.com/VBWu7nl 19€ (~8.7 keys with the current key price)

I wouldn't use the SCM seller as counter-evidence given that it's value in keys is only that low because there has been a recent significant rise in key prices. 11 days at 9 keys isn't too long either so I think you could probably go with 9-9.5 keys, but 9 keys flat is probably fine too since excluding 9.5 can account for the 2 bot dumps